Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/8 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+81.2pt). The game was decided in East 4: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 18,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +39.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +7.4 | -3.5 | -2.2 | -1.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 31% | 21% | 23% | 25% | -25.0 | +25.8 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| East 2 | Draw | 14% | 42% | 21% | 22% | -5.0 | -5.6 | +6.0 | +4.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 5,800 from Takamiya Mari | 12% | 36% | 26% | 26% | -13.2 | -1.2 | +16.8 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 3,900 | 6% | 33% | 37% | 23% | -4.5 | -2.6 | +9.0 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 30% | 45% | 20% | -4.4 | -9.5 | -16.3 | +30.2 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 22% | 29% | 45% | -9.9 | -14.5 | -14.7 | +39.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 6% | 8% | 85% | +2.9 | +0.5 | -1.8 | -1.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 1% | 6% | 8% | 86% | -15.7 | -5.6 | +21.4 | -0.1 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 3% | 13% | 84% | -1.5 | -9.1 | -3.3 | +14.0 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,300 from Hinata Aiko | 0% | 0% | 5% | 95% | -0.1 | -1.4 | -1.8 | +3.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.2 | +3.3 | -0.1 | -2.0 |