Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/8 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+81.2pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +42.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | +7.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -3.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 30% | 24% | 22% | 24% | -25.2 | +24.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 40% | 22% | 24% | -3.2 | -4.4 | +4.5 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 5,800 from Mari Takamiya | 13% | 37% | 26% | 25% | -14.0 | +0.3 | +14.0 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 3,900 | 7% | 35% | 34% | 24% | -3.4 | -5.1 | +12.3 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 29% | 45% | 21% | -6.0 | -7.0 | -15.2 | +28.2 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 24% | 29% | 43% | -9.1 | -14.4 | -18.8 | +42.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 6% | 6% | 87% | +3.3 | -1.5 | +1.0 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 1% | 6% | 7% | 86% | -16.5 | -4.6 | +21.6 | -0.5 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 3% | 14% | 83% | -1.4 | -9.5 | -4.2 | +15.2 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Aiko Hinata | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% | 0.0 | -1.9 | -1.4 | +3.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.3 | +3.7 | -0.1 | -2.3 |