Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/11 Game 2
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+77.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +44.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | +44.4 | -13.5 | -13.4 | -17.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,800 from Go Kobayashi | 63% | 12% | 12% | 12% | +12.4 | -13.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 75% | 7% | 10% | 8% | -2.5 | -2.0 | +6.0 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 73% | 7% | 11% | 10% | -4.6 | -11.4 | +23.5 | -7.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 3% | 24% | 6% | +3.0 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 3,000 | 70% | 3% | 21% | 6% | -5.8 | -2.7 | +9.7 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 3% | 29% | 6% | -15.5 | -4.7 | +28.1 | -7.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 37% | 1% | 59% | 3% | +23.6 | -2.4 | -18.3 | -2.9 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 18,000 | 67% | 1% | 30% | 2% | -9.2 | -13.1 | -12.1 | +34.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 1% | 25% | 13% | -1.8 | -0.9 | -1.6 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200 | 59% | 1% | 25% | 15% | -0.7 | +7.5 | -1.0 | -5.9 |
| South 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 7,700 from Kazunori Takizawa | 61% | 1% | 26% | 12% | +18.9 | +0.7 | -1.5 | -18.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 1% | 15% | 3% | -2.3 | -1.4 | +4.0 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 3,000 | 80% | 0% | 17% | 3% | -1.4 | +7.2 | -1.3 | -4.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 81% | 1% | 17% | 2% | -3.6 | -15.2 | +15.8 | +3.0 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 70% | 0% | 29% | 1% | +10.1 | -0.2 | -21.0 | +11.0 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 94% | 0% | 3% | 3% | +10.4 | +0.3 | +1.6 | -12.3 |