Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/14 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +35.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 27% | 26% | 22% | 25% | -1.7 | -4.5 | -20.0 | +26.2 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 22% | 21% | 12% | 45% | +35.4 | -4.7 | +1.0 | -31.7 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori tsumo 1,500 | 53% | 16% | 12% | 19% | +0.2 | -3.3 | +6.2 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 14% | 15% | 17% | +4.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 58% | 15% | 13% | 14% | +0.7 | -1.7 | -15.9 | +16.9 |
| East 4 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 2,000 | 59% | 12% | 6% | 23% | +1.3 | +8.2 | -0.3 | -9.1 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 61% | 17% | 6% | 16% | +23.0 | +0.6 | -21.6 | -2.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 84% | 7% | 1% | 7% | -1.0 | +21.4 | -1.5 | -18.9 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 83% | 14% | 1% | 2% | +1.7 | -9.4 | +13.1 | -5.4 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 92% | 5% | 2% | 2% | +0.1 | -3.5 | -13.6 | +17.0 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 95% | 1% | 0% | 3% | +1.9 | -24.7 | +9.0 | +13.7 |