Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/14 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +36.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | -0.2 | -3.3 | -21.6 | +25.1 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 23% | 20% | 12% | 45% | +36.6 | -4.9 | +0.9 | -32.5 |
| East 3 | Hori Shingo tsumo 1,500 | 55% | 15% | 12% | 18% | -1.7 | +0.2 | +3.6 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 53% | 16% | 14% | 17% | +1.0 | -3.3 | +3.6 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Hori Shingo | 55% | 13% | 15% | 17% | +4.1 | -0.1 | -16.5 | +12.6 |
| East 4 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 2,000 | 60% | 12% | 7% | 21% | +2.2 | +7.4 | -3.9 | -5.8 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 64% | 15% | 6% | 16% | +22.4 | -1.5 | -20.0 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kondo Seiichi ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 85% | 6% | 1% | 8% | -1.2 | +23.8 | -1.6 | -21.0 |
| South 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000 | 83% | 14% | 1% | 3% | +1.8 | -9.5 | +12.8 | -5.1 |
| South 3 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 92% | 4% | 1% | 2% | -0.6 | -3.1 | -13.2 | +16.9 |
| South 4 | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 95% | 1% | 0% | 4% | +2.2 | -25.1 | +9.0 | +13.9 |