Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/14 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+78.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +49.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 27% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -16.9 | +13.8 | +1.9 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 33% | 25% | 27% | +23.6 | -12.9 | -5.8 | -5.0 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 31% | 23% | 22% | 24% | +23.8 | +1.7 | -3.9 | -21.6 |
| East 4 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 18,000 | 52% | 22% | 16% | 11% | -20.6 | -16.4 | -15.0 | +52.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 30% | 14% | 10% | 46% | -0.2 | -21.9 | +26.1 | -4.0 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 30% | 6% | 23% | 41% | +49.2 | -11.6 | -16.7 | -20.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 81% | 1% | 5% | 12% | +17.7 | +5.0 | -23.4 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 94% | 1% | 1% | 4% | -0.6 | -17.7 | +18.3 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 94% | 0% | 2% | 4% | -0.8 | +4.0 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 94% | 1% | 1% | 4% | +1.5 | -4.0 | +3.3 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 96% | 0% | 1% | 2% | -0.5 | -1.5 | -4.0 | +6.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 5,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | +0.8 | 0.0 | +26.8 | -27.6 |