Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/14 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+78.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +48.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 23% | 25% | 25% | 28% | -12.5 | +14.6 | +1.3 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 34% | 26% | 24% | +21.4 | -12.6 | -6.3 | -2.5 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 31% | 24% | 22% | 23% | +24.4 | +0.1 | -2.6 | -21.9 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 18,000 | 52% | 22% | 16% | 11% | -21.7 | -15.4 | -16.9 | +53.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 30% | 14% | 9% | 47% | +0.9 | -21.4 | +25.6 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 30% | 7% | 21% | 42% | +48.7 | -12.3 | -15.3 | -21.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 82% | 2% | 5% | 12% | +16.9 | +4.8 | -22.9 | +1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 93% | 1% | 1% | 5% | +1.0 | -17.4 | +16.9 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 95% | 0% | 1% | 4% | -1.6 | +3.3 | -0.6 | -1.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 93% | 1% | 2% | 5% | +0.9 | -4.4 | +4.0 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 96% | 0% | 2% | 3% | +0.1 | -1.0 | -5.0 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | +1.0 | -0.2 | +26.6 | -27.4 |