Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/18 Game 1
Kotaro Uchikawa finished 1st (+56.7pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 18,000, which moved Kotaro Uchikawa's expected points by +46.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -2.8 | +2.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 25% | 25% | 27% | -2.0 | +7.2 | -3.0 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 18,000 | 21% | 30% | 24% | 25% | -15.9 | +46.5 | -13.7 | -16.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 71% | 11% | 9% | +4.0 | -2.9 | -5.9 | +4.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,300 from Rio Tojyo | 9% | 70% | 9% | 12% | -0.5 | +8.3 | -7.0 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 80% | 4% | 9% | +4.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 76% | 4% | 10% | +2.4 | +3.4 | -2.7 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 8% | 81% | 3% | 8% | -4.2 | -15.3 | +26.7 | -7.2 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 9% | 69% | 13% | 9% | +6.4 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 70% | 12% | 9% | -0.9 | +13.1 | -4.5 | -7.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 2% | 91% | 2% | 5% | +12.9 | +2.2 | -3.2 | -11.9 |