Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/18 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+79.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Aki Nikaido ron 18,000 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +40.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -11.7 | +23.4 | -8.2 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 18,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 17% | 42% | 19% | 22% | -1.7 | +40.1 | +0.1 | -38.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 78% | 11% | 3% | -1.1 | -3.8 | +8.6 | -3.6 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 16,000 | 7% | 77% | 13% | 3% | +36.6 | -9.6 | -20.4 | -6.6 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 64% | 6% | 2% | -10.1 | +23.5 | -3.9 | -9.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 89% | 1% | 0% | -2.0 | +1.5 | -0.3 | +0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 94% | 1% | 0% | +0.1 | +0.1 | -1.7 | +1.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 2% | 97% | 1% | 0% | -5.9 | +8.4 | -1.4 | -1.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -1.8 | -0.9 | -1.3 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -1.3 | -0.5 | -1.0 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -19.8 | -2.4 | +31.9 | -9.7 |