Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +26.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | +3.6 | -3.8 | +1.5 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 28% | 22% | 26% | 24% | -4.6 | 0.0 | -21.9 | +26.5 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 22% | 21% | 12% | 45% | +2.3 | -14.1 | +10.3 | +1.5 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 24% | 13% | 16% | 47% | +0.2 | +25.7 | -0.2 | -25.7 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 3,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 27% | 30% | 17% | 26% | +12.8 | -0.3 | +0.5 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 37% | 29% | 18% | 16% | -2.9 | -0.8 | +26.1 | -22.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 26% | 36% | 7% | +2.9 | -1.4 | +0.6 | -2.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 24% | 35% | 6% | -10.0 | +26.0 | -13.3 | -2.8 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 23% | 55% | 16% | 6% | -13.8 | +2.7 | +4.4 | +6.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 60% | 18% | 8% | -8.0 | -4.7 | -6.0 | +18.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata | 12% | 57% | 16% | 15% | -21.1 | +23.6 | +1.4 | -3.8 |