Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +26.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +3.8 | -2.3 | +4.4 | -5.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 28% | 24% | 27% | 22% | -3.1 | -2.8 | -21.6 | +27.5 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Mizuhara Akina | 23% | 21% | 14% | 43% | -0.3 | -14.6 | +11.8 | +3.0 |
| East 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 23% | 12% | 20% | 46% | +0.7 | +24.6 | -2.9 | -22.5 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 3,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 25% | 29% | 18% | 29% | +13.1 | +0.9 | +0.4 | -14.4 |
| South 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 36% | 28% | 18% | 18% | -2.1 | -1.1 | +25.5 | -22.3 |
| South 2 | Draw | 32% | 25% | 35% | 8% | +2.4 | -1.1 | +2.8 | -4.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 23% | 37% | 6% | -11.0 | +26.4 | -12.6 | -2.8 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 21% | 55% | 19% | 5% | -11.9 | +4.2 | +0.2 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 63% | 17% | 8% | -9.0 | -6.9 | -3.5 | +19.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,000 from Hinata Aiko | 13% | 56% | 16% | 15% | -20.4 | +24.4 | +0.7 | -4.7 |