Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/24 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+62.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Maruyama Kanako, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +34.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Maruyama Kanako 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Maruyama Kanako Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -24.0 | +24.8 | -2.7 | +1.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 11% | 42% | 21% | 25% | +1.3 | +3.2 | -5.7 | +1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 12% | 46% | 18% | 25% | -2.5 | -3.8 | +11.0 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 2,000 | 11% | 44% | 25% | 21% | -1.1 | +5.6 | -3.4 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Maruyama Kanako ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 10% | 49% | 20% | 21% | -0.5 | -2.1 | -33.1 | +35.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 8% | 40% | 5% | 46% | +8.3 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 40% | 5% | 46% | -18.0 | -1.8 | +20.1 | -0.3 |
| South 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Maruyama Kanako | 3% | 38% | 10% | 49% | +3.2 | +34.5 | +2.5 | -40.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 84% | 7% | 8% | -10.9 | -7.7 | +25.6 | -7.0 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Maruyama Kanako | 0% | 77% | 17% | 6% | -0.9 | +12.8 | -5.3 | -6.6 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 94% | 3% | 3% | +28.2 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -27.8 |