Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/24 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+62.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Kanako Maruyama, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +35.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -22.8 | +24.9 | -2.5 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 44% | 21% | 24% | +2.2 | +0.5 | -5.3 | +2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 12% | 44% | 18% | 26% | -4.6 | -2.5 | +11.1 | -3.9 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,000 | 10% | 42% | 24% | 24% | -2.7 | +9.5 | -5.9 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Kanako Maruyama ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 52% | 19% | 21% | +2.2 | -5.5 | -30.0 | +33.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 40% | 5% | 47% | +7.7 | -0.9 | -4.0 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 40% | 4% | 45% | -17.5 | -2.5 | +20.4 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 3% | 38% | 11% | 48% | +2.0 | +35.0 | +1.4 | -38.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 84% | 7% | 8% | -10.5 | -9.0 | +26.1 | -6.7 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 1% | 76% | 16% | 7% | -0.3 | +14.2 | -5.2 | -8.7 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 96% | 1% | 2% | +27.7 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -26.7 |