Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/24 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+62.4pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +37.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 26% | 23% | 25% | 25% | +21.3 | +0.1 | -21.4 | 0.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 23% | 13% | 23% | -5.2 | +2.9 | -2.8 | +5.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya | 37% | 25% | 13% | 26% | +0.1 | -3.5 | -11.0 | +14.3 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 36% | 19% | 8% | 37% | -18.4 | -14.3 | +50.3 | -17.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 7,700 from Go Kobayashi | 23% | 15% | 37% | 25% | -20.8 | -0.5 | +22.7 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 13% | 56% | 20% | +22.7 | -5.0 | -11.7 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 12% | 46% | 20% | -6.9 | -6.1 | +25.0 | -12.0 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 6% | 74% | 7% | -23.1 | -7.5 | -6.7 | +37.2 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 4% | 65% | 28% | +20.6 | -15.2 | +0.2 | -5.6 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 0% | 68% | 23% | +16.2 | -3.8 | -3.2 | -9.2 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 14% | 0% | 69% | 17% | -9.3 | -1.0 | -2.4 | +12.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 0% | 65% | 22% | -7.2 | -2.0 | -23.4 | +32.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,000 | 6% | 0% | 16% | 78% | -2.2 | -1.3 | -6.5 | +10.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 0% | 6% | 91% | -4.9 | +0.3 | +1.7 | +2.9 |