Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/25 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+66.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +31.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +31.2 | -7.0 | -9.5 | -14.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 19% | 17% | 15% | -3.4 | -4.5 | +2.9 | +5.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 46% | 16% | 19% | 18% | -1.8 | +2.8 | +0.7 | -1.7 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 45% | 18% | 20% | 18% | +1.5 | -5.2 | +13.7 | -10.0 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 9,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 46% | 13% | 28% | 13% | -4.0 | -20.3 | +24.6 | -0.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 38% | 5% | 47% | 11% | -8.3 | -7.6 | +19.9 | -4.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 2% | 68% | 6% | +13.0 | -1.1 | -6.4 | -5.5 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 1,500 | 35% | 2% | 58% | 5% | -0.6 | -1.8 | -1.5 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 2% | 57% | 6% | -3.1 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +4.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 33% | 2% | 57% | 8% | +5.2 | +8.2 | -8.3 | -5.1 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 42% | 3% | 49% | 6% | -3.5 | -6.6 | +8.5 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 2% | 59% | 4% | -1.4 | +2.7 | +4.2 | -5.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,500 | 30% | 2% | 64% | 3% | -2.5 | -4.9 | +8.3 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 21% | 0% | 77% | 2% | +9.0 | +8.1 | -2.6 | -14.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 0% | 72% | 1% | +5.3 | -4.0 | -6.2 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,000 | 39% | 0% | 60% | 1% | +29.7 | -1.8 | -25.1 | -2.8 |