Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/25 Game 1
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+66.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +34.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +34.2 | -10.8 | -10.5 | -12.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 52% | 16% | 16% | 17% | -4.1 | -1.5 | +2.8 | +2.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 49% | 15% | 18% | 18% | -4.0 | +4.1 | +1.8 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 45% | 18% | 19% | 18% | +1.4 | -6.5 | +15.4 | -10.3 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 9,600 from Kayamori Sayaka | 46% | 13% | 28% | 13% | -3.1 | -20.5 | +23.5 | +0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800 | 38% | 5% | 47% | 10% | -8.9 | -4.7 | +19.8 | -6.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 4% | 66% | 6% | +12.6 | -3.2 | -6.5 | -3.0 |
| East 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 1,500 | 34% | 2% | 59% | 6% | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.3 | +4.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 34% | 2% | 57% | 7% | +0.4 | -1.0 | -1.5 | +2.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 35% | 2% | 55% | 7% | +3.6 | +8.8 | -7.7 | -4.7 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 43% | 4% | 48% | 5% | -4.5 | -8.0 | +10.1 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 34% | 2% | 61% | 4% | -0.2 | +4.3 | +1.9 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,500 | 32% | 2% | 63% | 3% | -4.3 | -5.2 | +10.1 | -0.5 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 19% | 0% | 79% | 2% | +9.7 | +6.6 | -3.4 | -12.9 |
| South 4 | Draw | 27% | 0% | 72% | 1% | +5.8 | -4.0 | -6.1 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 2,000 | 39% | 0% | 60% | 1% | +29.5 | -1.0 | -25.3 | -3.3 |