Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/25 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+76.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 3 honba: Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +31.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -3.7 | +2.5 | -2.8 | +4.0 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,000 | 23% | 25% | 24% | 28% | -2.8 | +7.6 | -1.7 | -3.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 31% | 22% | 25% | -4.1 | +4.7 | -1.5 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,000 | 19% | 34% | 21% | 26% | -3.9 | +12.4 | -4.2 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 45% | 18% | 22% | +1.9 | -2.8 | +4.9 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 3,000 | 17% | 43% | 21% | 19% | -8.4 | -3.2 | +14.7 | -3.1 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 13% | 40% | 28% | 19% | -12.7 | +16.5 | -2.9 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 55% | 23% | 15% | -5.5 | -12.6 | +34.9 | -16.8 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 4% | 34% | 57% | 6% | -18.1 | +23.3 | -6.9 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 59% | 38% | 3% | -4.5 | -1.9 | +4.6 | +1.8 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 56% | 41% | 3% | -4.3 | -5.5 | +10.0 | -0.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 41% | 57% | 2% | -1.6 | +12.8 | -10.9 | -0.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 64% | 34% | 2% | -4.5 | -6.3 | -5.9 | +16.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori | 0% | 61% | 33% | 7% | 0.0 | +31.1 | -10.9 | -20.2 |