Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/28 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+60.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +37.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +3.4 | +0.9 | -1.9 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 25% | 23% | 23% | -13.5 | -6.6 | -5.2 | +25.3 |
| East 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 6,000 | 18% | 21% | 19% | 43% | -5.4 | +17.5 | -5.3 | -6.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 32% | 16% | 36% | +37.6 | -21.7 | -8.2 | -7.7 |
| East 3 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 5,200 from Murakami Jun | 42% | 16% | 13% | 29% | +0.2 | +0.5 | -15.4 | +14.8 |
| East 4 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 40% | 14% | 6% | 40% | -4.2 | -26.8 | +2.6 | +28.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 4,000 | 27% | 3% | 4% | 67% | +10.8 | -2.7 | -2.0 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Hori Shingo tsumo 2,000 | 36% | 3% | 3% | 58% | -3.2 | +3.7 | -1.5 | +1.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 33% | 3% | 3% | 62% | -3.2 | +1.7 | -3.4 | +4.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun | 27% | 3% | 2% | 68% | -2.2 | +12.6 | -11.0 | +0.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 24% | 5% | 1% | 70% | +8.5 | -3.2 | -2.3 | -2.9 |
| South 3 | Murakami Jun tsumo 7,800 | 33% | 1% | 1% | 65% | -3.7 | -6.8 | +13.2 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Murakami Jun tsumo 18,000 | 32% | 1% | 2% | 65% | -14.3 | -19.3 | +46.2 | -12.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 25% | 1% | 20% | 54% | +36.9 | -11.1 | -11.4 | -14.3 |
| South 4 | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Hori Shingo | 76% | 0% | 4% | 19% | +11.4 | -0.5 | -5.2 | -5.7 |