Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/28 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+60.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +37.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +5.6 | +3.4 | -4.1 | -4.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 28% | 21% | 22% | -14.9 | -5.5 | -6.0 | +26.4 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 17% | 23% | 18% | 42% | -5.3 | +13.4 | -3.6 | -4.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 30% | 17% | 38% | +37.1 | -20.5 | -7.6 | -9.1 |
| East 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 5,200 from Jun Murakami | 42% | 17% | 13% | 28% | +1.0 | -0.2 | -15.5 | +14.7 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 42% | 14% | 5% | 39% | -4.8 | -26.0 | +2.1 | +28.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 3% | 4% | 67% | +12.1 | -2.0 | -3.1 | -7.0 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,000 | 37% | 3% | 2% | 58% | -4.1 | +3.5 | -1.5 | +2.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 3% | 2% | 62% | -3.3 | +2.0 | -2.5 | +3.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 27% | 3% | 2% | 68% | -1.9 | +12.2 | -11.0 | +0.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 26% | 4% | 1% | 69% | +8.6 | -3.8 | -2.0 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami tsumo 7,800 | 34% | 1% | 1% | 65% | -2.6 | -5.5 | +12.5 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 18,000 | 35% | 1% | 2% | 61% | -15.3 | -19.9 | +46.9 | -11.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 27% | 0% | 20% | 53% | +35.9 | -10.8 | -11.7 | -13.4 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Shingo Hori | 77% | 0% | 4% | 19% | +11.3 | -0.8 | -4.9 | -5.6 |