Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/28 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 18,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +70.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | -6.4 | +6.3 | +0.5 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 21% | 29% | 24% | 26% | +27.3 | -25.5 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 42% | 12% | 22% | 24% | +8.1 | -2.4 | -5.5 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,500 | 51% | 10% | 17% | 22% | +9.2 | -0.1 | -1.6 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 10% | 14% | 14% | +1.3 | +5.2 | -2.4 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 63% | 11% | 13% | 13% | -11.9 | -7.9 | +26.2 | -6.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 10% | 30% | 10% | -0.6 | -10.0 | +7.5 | +3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 3% | 37% | 11% | +2.3 | -6.3 | -4.1 | +8.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 18,000 | 54% | 1% | 31% | 14% | -31.3 | -10.1 | -29.0 | +70.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 3% | 0% | 1% | 96% | +7.8 | -0.9 | -7.3 | +0.5 |