Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
11/29 Game 1
Seiichi Kondo finished 1st (+73.3pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000, which moved Seiichi Kondo's expected points by +33.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 23% | 23% | 27% | +13.3 | -3.2 | -4.9 | -5.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 36% | 21% | 22% | 21% | -3.5 | +23.4 | -0.2 | -19.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | +1.1 | -4.8 | -2.0 | +5.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,500 from Go Kobayashi | 33% | 33% | 20% | 14% | -2.5 | -4.5 | +9.8 | -2.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 30% | 30% | 27% | 14% | +35.6 | -33.1 | -2.1 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Seiichi Kondo ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 66% | 8% | 17% | 10% | +0.9 | +0.9 | -6.1 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 67% | 8% | 14% | 11% | -0.9 | -1.2 | -28.8 | +30.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 64% | 7% | 4% | 26% | -16.8 | -8.1 | -6.7 | +31.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 18,000 | 35% | 4% | 3% | 59% | -17.9 | -7.7 | -8.2 | +33.7 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 1,500 from Go Kobayashi | 7% | 1% | 0% | 92% | +0.1 | -4.9 | +1.0 | +3.8 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 1% | 0% | 93% | -2.5 | -3.8 | +4.7 | +1.6 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 0% | 1% | 95% | -3.0 | +8.8 | -4.1 | -1.7 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 3% | 1% | 1% | 96% | +6.9 | -8.1 | +1.3 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 95% | -12.4 | +23.1 | -9.2 | -1.5 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 98% | -11.4 | +23.2 | -6.5 | -5.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 3% | 0% | 96% | -1.2 | -3.3 | +3.3 | +1.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -1.0 | -1.2 | +3.7 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -8.8 | +22.4 | -10.7 | -2.8 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 0% | 2% | 0% | 98% | +29.7 | -29.0 | -0.6 | -0.2 |