Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/2 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +31.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -5.8 | +12.7 | -3.6 | -3.3 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 35% | 23% | 23% | -10.0 | +31.4 | -10.7 | -10.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,500 from Kanako Maruyama | 10% | 63% | 13% | 14% | +1.7 | +2.4 | +1.1 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 65% | 13% | 11% | +32.9 | -14.1 | -9.9 | -8.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 49% | 10% | 9% | -1.9 | -0.8 | +5.7 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 48% | 13% | 8% | -7.1 | -6.2 | -23.1 | +36.5 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 44% | 5% | 24% | -2.1 | +13.9 | -7.6 | -4.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 59% | 3% | 18% | +9.4 | -3.8 | -2.9 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,900 | 29% | 53% | 2% | 16% | +12.1 | -7.2 | -0.8 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 4,000 | 41% | 43% | 2% | 14% | -9.0 | -3.4 | -4.0 | +16.3 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Kanako Maruyama | 32% | 40% | 2% | 26% | -3.2 | +26.8 | +0.5 | -24.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 72% | 1% | 7% | -3.7 | +5.3 | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 14% | 78% | 1% | 6% | -0.4 | -0.9 | +3.4 | -2.0 |
| South 3 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 83% | 1% | 5% | -5.3 | -0.2 | -8.3 | +13.8 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 5% | 86% | 0% | 9% | +3.7 | +2.7 | +4.4 | -10.8 |