Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/2 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +30.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Maruyama Kanako 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Maruyama Kanako Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -8.1 | +13.7 | -3.1 | -2.5 |
| East 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 34% | 23% | 23% | -11.5 | +30.2 | -9.9 | -8.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,500 from Maruyama Kanako | 11% | 60% | 14% | 15% | +0.9 | +4.1 | +0.3 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 65% | 12% | 12% | +35.0 | -15.0 | -8.9 | -11.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 33% | 48% | 10% | 9% | -2.6 | +2.5 | +3.3 | -3.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Maruyama Kanako tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 50% | 12% | 8% | -8.6 | -7.3 | -21.2 | +37.2 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 26% | 44% | 5% | 25% | +0.5 | +9.7 | -8.2 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 23% | 54% | 3% | 20% | +7.6 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,900 | 30% | 51% | 2% | 17% | +11.6 | -5.1 | -2.5 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Maruyama Kanako tsumo 4,000 | 41% | 43% | 2% | 14% | -8.9 | -2.9 | -4.3 | +16.1 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Maruyama Kanako | 31% | 41% | 1% | 26% | -3.0 | +24.8 | +1.1 | -22.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 72% | 1% | 8% | -2.3 | +4.8 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 2,000 | 16% | 77% | 1% | 7% | -0.6 | -0.3 | +4.6 | -3.6 |
| South 3 | Maruyama Kanako tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 82% | 1% | 5% | -7.0 | +0.5 | -9.0 | +15.5 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 4% | 86% | 0% | 10% | +4.6 | +2.3 | +4.5 | -11.4 |