Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/5 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+84.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sayaka Okada ron 24,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +54.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -13.7 | +20.4 | -3.7 | -3.0 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 39% | 21% | 23% | -7.3 | -16.4 | +32.4 | -8.7 |
| East 3 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 1,500 | 13% | 25% | 46% | 16% | -3.6 | +8.6 | -4.1 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 31% | 43% | 16% | +27.9 | -9.9 | -2.7 | -15.3 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 24,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 26% | 24% | 41% | 9% | -60.4 | +1.0 | +54.1 | +5.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 5% | 94% | 1% | +2.0 | +2.4 | -0.7 | -3.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 6% | 93% | 2% | +10.4 | -5.2 | +0.4 | -5.6 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,400 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -4.7 | +0.2 | +2.7 | +1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -1.6 | -3.1 | +6.5 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +3.4 | +0.8 | -1.8 | -2.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -3.5 | +2.6 | -1.8 | +2.7 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -4.7 | +1.2 | +4.2 | -0.7 |