Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/5 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+55.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +35.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -17.3 | -11.4 | -6.3 | +35.0 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 6,000 | 12% | 16% | 19% | 54% | -5.6 | +16.9 | -7.6 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio | 10% | 25% | 15% | 50% | -26.1 | -4.1 | +31.2 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 7,700 from Tojyo Rio | 3% | 19% | 33% | 46% | -10.5 | -1.0 | +17.1 | -5.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 2% | 15% | 47% | 36% | +13.2 | +1.8 | -20.9 | +5.9 |
| East 4 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 20% | 29% | 47% | +1.6 | -2.3 | +1.3 | -0.6 |
| South 1 | Tojyo Rio ron 2,900 from Date Arisa | 4% | 19% | 30% | 48% | +8.6 | -1.0 | +2.0 | -9.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 20% | 35% | 38% | -10.6 | -2.5 | -2.4 | +15.5 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 1% | 16% | 28% | 55% | -0.5 | -8.0 | -1.9 | +10.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 6% | 22% | 72% | -2.1 | -2.7 | -2.5 | +7.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 87% | -2.4 | +1.7 | -1.4 | +2.1 |