Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/5 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+55.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +36.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -18.6 | -11.7 | -6.6 | +36.9 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 6,000 | 12% | 16% | 18% | 55% | -4.6 | +15.5 | -4.4 | -6.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 11% | 25% | 16% | 48% | -27.6 | -1.8 | +29.9 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 7,700 from Rio Tojyo | 2% | 20% | 32% | 46% | -10.4 | -3.3 | +16.5 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 1% | 15% | 46% | 39% | +13.2 | +3.3 | -19.9 | +3.5 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 1,100 | 3% | 20% | 30% | 47% | +1.2 | -2.3 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| South 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Arisa Date | 3% | 19% | 30% | 48% | +7.8 | +0.6 | +1.9 | -10.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 21% | 36% | 38% | -8.0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | +15.8 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 1% | 16% | 27% | 55% | -1.7 | -10.2 | +1.4 | +10.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 6% | 23% | 71% | -2.3 | -0.3 | -4.7 | +7.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 87% | -2.3 | +1.1 | -1.0 | +2.2 |