Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/6 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+63.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +40.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +4.3 | +3.0 | -2.4 | -4.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 27% | 23% | 23% | +2.8 | +2.5 | -4.2 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 28% | 20% | 22% | -6.0 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 0.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 24% | 28% | 25% | 22% | +0.8 | -11.9 | -3.2 | +14.3 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 20% | 23% | 32% | +11.3 | -1.1 | -7.5 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Jun Murakami | 34% | 19% | 17% | 30% | -2.2 | -33.1 | -0.6 | +35.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Jun Murakami | 23% | 4% | 12% | 61% | -5.1 | -20.0 | +0.2 | +24.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 1% | 6% | 84% | +22.2 | -2.2 | -6.6 | -13.5 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 28% | 1% | 4% | 68% | +32.7 | -0.5 | +1.7 | -33.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 75% | 1% | 4% | 20% | -11.8 | -4.6 | +24.8 | -8.4 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 64% | 0% | 16% | 19% | +1.0 | -1.4 | -3.4 | +3.9 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Yu Suzuki | 67% | 0% | 13% | 20% | +12.8 | +0.3 | -9.3 | -3.8 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 88% | 0% | 2% | 10% | -26.3 | -4.1 | -9.9 | +40.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 0% | 1% | 66% | -13.7 | -0.6 | +2.8 | +11.5 |