Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/6 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+63.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +40.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Suzuki Yu 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Suzuki Yu Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +3.4 | +2.6 | -3.4 | -2.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 28% | 26% | 23% | 23% | +2.3 | +5.4 | -3.7 | -3.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 29% | 28% | 22% | 21% | -5.7 | -0.5 | +5.1 | +1.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Murakami Jun | 25% | 29% | 24% | 22% | +0.6 | -14.5 | -2.1 | +15.9 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 19% | 22% | 34% | +11.6 | -2.1 | -8.3 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Murakami Jun | 34% | 17% | 17% | 32% | -1.9 | -31.0 | -0.1 | +33.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Murakami Jun | 24% | 4% | 12% | 60% | -4.8 | -18.9 | -0.6 | +24.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 1% | 5% | 83% | +19.9 | -3.5 | -3.8 | -12.6 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 27% | 1% | 6% | 67% | +34.0 | +0.7 | -0.7 | -34.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Suzuki Yu tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 1% | 5% | 20% | -11.9 | -5.6 | +25.4 | -7.8 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 63% | 0% | 16% | 20% | +2.2 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +2.4 |
| South 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 2,000 from Suzuki Yu | 69% | 0% | 13% | 18% | +11.8 | +0.6 | -9.7 | -2.8 |
| South 4 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 88% | 0% | 2% | 10% | -26.5 | -4.0 | -9.7 | +40.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 33% | 0% | 1% | 66% | -13.7 | -0.5 | +2.5 | +11.7 |