Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/6 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+50.7pt). The game was decided in South 3: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +38.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -23.9 | +23.4 | +1.5 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 43% | 23% | 22% | -8.6 | -18.4 | +33.2 | -6.2 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 7,800 | 8% | 23% | 52% | 17% | -5.1 | -6.0 | +15.0 | -4.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 16% | 67% | 14% | -3.2 | +21.2 | -9.8 | -8.2 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 4% | 31% | 55% | 10% | +8.0 | +4.5 | -10.2 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 6,400 from Kei Nakabayashi | 6% | 39% | 46% | 9% | -18.7 | +1.4 | -1.9 | +19.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 41% | 42% | 16% | +17.7 | -15.4 | +2.4 | -4.7 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 27% | 52% | 17% | -10.3 | -10.1 | -18.5 | +38.8 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 16,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 17% | 25% | 56% | +53.4 | -49.9 | -22.6 | +19.1 |