Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/6 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+50.7pt). The game was decided in South 3: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +39.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -23.8 | +23.1 | -0.7 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 41% | 23% | 25% | -7.7 | -19.2 | +35.3 | -8.4 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 7,800 | 7% | 22% | 52% | 18% | -3.6 | -7.1 | +16.6 | -5.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 14% | 69% | 13% | -5.8 | +23.5 | -11.6 | -6.1 |
| East 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 4% | 31% | 55% | 10% | +9.3 | +4.0 | -9.7 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 6,400 from Nakabayashi Kei | 6% | 40% | 45% | 8% | -17.4 | -0.6 | -1.6 | +19.6 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 37% | 45% | 17% | +16.8 | -12.4 | +1.6 | -6.0 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 27% | 51% | 17% | -9.6 | -10.5 | -19.6 | +39.7 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 16,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 2% | 18% | 24% | 56% | +52.5 | -50.1 | -21.6 | +19.2 |