Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/9 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+49.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +40.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -6.0 | -3.0 | +9.4 | -0.5 |
| East 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 23% | 31% | 26% | -8.1 | -16.7 | +37.0 | -12.1 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 6,400 from Mari Takamiya | 12% | 9% | 65% | 14% | +1.6 | +18.4 | -19.5 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 22% | 47% | 16% | +3.3 | -3.8 | -3.3 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 20% | 44% | 19% | +25.1 | -5.3 | -5.0 | -14.7 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 17% | 37% | 11% | -20.0 | -12.2 | -7.9 | +40.2 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,100 | 19% | 12% | 30% | 39% | -1.6 | -5.9 | -1.5 | +8.9 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 7% | 26% | 49% | -9.6 | +16.1 | -11.8 | +5.3 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 15% | 13% | 13% | 59% | -27.2 | +20.9 | -11.3 | +17.7 |