Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/12 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+55.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +45.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | +5.9 | -2.8 | -2.0 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 24% | 22% | 25% | +7.6 | -4.9 | -0.3 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 3,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 35% | 19% | 21% | 24% | -3.0 | +0.4 | -11.2 | +13.8 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,900 from Yu Suzuki | 32% | 20% | 16% | 32% | +0.4 | +8.3 | -0.5 | -8.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 1,500 | 31% | 26% | 16% | 27% | -4.0 | +7.5 | -1.6 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 29% | 32% | 14% | 26% | +24.5 | -25.5 | +1.5 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 12% | 15% | 23% | -11.1 | -9.8 | +35.3 | -14.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 39% | 9% | 36% | 15% | +1.0 | -4.2 | -24.1 | +27.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 8% | 18% | 33% | -2.7 | -3.5 | +1.1 | +5.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 7% | 19% | 37% | +2.4 | -1.9 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 6% | 18% | 36% | -5.4 | -1.6 | -0.7 | +7.7 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 32% | 6% | 18% | 44% | -0.9 | +37.1 | -36.6 | +0.4 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 31% | 20% | 5% | 45% | -0.2 | -11.8 | -1.6 | +13.5 |
| South 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 18,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 27% | 8% | 3% | 62% | -1.6 | -43.8 | +48.6 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 0% | 19% | 56% | -3.0 | +1.7 | -4.4 | +5.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 0% | 13% | 68% | +45.0 | -1.2 | -14.0 | -29.8 |