Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/15 Game 1
Rumi Nikaido finished 1st (+92.3pt). The game was decided in South 3: Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Rumi Nikaido's expected points by +35.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -7.3 | +11.9 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 33% | 23% | 24% | +12.0 | -6.3 | -4.2 | -1.5 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 27% | 20% | 23% | -11.6 | -10.5 | +33.2 | -11.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 19% | 45% | 16% | +10.9 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.0 |
| East 4 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 17% | 42% | 15% | -11.3 | +40.2 | -9.9 | -19.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 49% | 29% | 6% | -6.4 | -2.7 | +12.4 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kanako Maruyama ron 5,800 from Kazunori Takizawa | 11% | 44% | 41% | 4% | -14.8 | +18.4 | -4.8 | +1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 3% | 65% | 28% | 3% | 0.0 | -1.3 | +9.9 | -8.7 |
| South 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 63% | 34% | 2% | -4.1 | -26.4 | +35.4 | -4.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 11% | 89% | 1% | -4.5 | -7.2 | +16.1 | -4.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | -6.5 | -6.5 | +20.1 | -7.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +19.7 | -2.9 | -13.5 | -3.3 |
| South 4 | Rumi Nikaido ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -1.7 | +3.6 | +4.5 | -6.4 |