Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/15 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+64.0pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +41.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 1,100 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -3.6 | -0.8 | +2.3 | +2.1 |
| East 2 | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 22% | 24% | 26% | 28% | -11.8 | -2.6 | +15.0 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 15% | 21% | 38% | 26% | -1.9 | +0.8 | +9.7 | -8.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,500 from Matsugase Takaya | 13% | 20% | 47% | 20% | -2.5 | -0.9 | +2.4 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 2,600 from Hori Shingo | 12% | 19% | 49% | 20% | -0.6 | -7.2 | +1.3 | +6.5 |
| East 4 | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 12% | 15% | 51% | 22% | -2.7 | +41.4 | -38.2 | -0.5 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 50% | 17% | 23% | -12.6 | -2.4 | -4.9 | +19.8 |
| South 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 7,800 | 4% | 46% | 13% | 37% | -5.2 | +20.7 | -5.2 | -10.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 71% | 8% | 19% | -6.9 | -26.9 | -7.5 | +41.4 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 24% | 4% | 72% | +2.1 | -1.2 | +1.9 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,500 from Hori Shingo | 0% | 25% | 5% | 70% | -2.9 | -6.2 | +6.7 | +2.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 0% | 18% | 6% | 76% | -12.9 | -3.8 | -2.4 | +19.1 |
| South 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -3.2 | -21.7 | +31.3 | -6.4 |