Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/15 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+64.0pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +41.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,100 | 24% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -3.1 | -2.3 | +2.8 | +2.6 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 23% | 25% | 27% | 26% | -11.8 | -2.8 | +14.9 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 16% | 21% | 38% | 25% | -1.2 | -0.6 | +8.6 | -6.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 15% | 19% | 46% | 21% | -4.1 | +0.2 | +5.4 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Shingo Hori | 12% | 19% | 50% | 19% | +0.4 | -8.4 | -0.8 | +8.9 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 12% | 14% | 50% | 23% | -2.3 | +42.0 | -37.8 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,200 | 11% | 51% | 16% | 22% | -13.7 | -3.2 | -5.2 | +22.1 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 7,800 | 4% | 44% | 14% | 38% | -4.4 | +22.1 | -5.7 | -12.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 72% | 8% | 19% | -7.8 | -28.2 | -5.7 | +41.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 22% | 5% | 73% | +2.0 | -0.4 | +0.5 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,500 from Shingo Hori | 0% | 24% | 6% | 70% | -3.5 | -6.1 | +8.4 | +1.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 18% | 7% | 75% | -12.4 | -3.6 | -4.5 | +20.5 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -3.0 | -21.6 | +31.5 | -6.9 |