Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/19 Game 1
Rumi Nikaido finished 1st (+58.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Rumi Nikaido's expected points by +31.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 24% | 27% | +8.4 | -3.4 | -1.6 | -3.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 24% | 23% | 24% | +31.8 | -9.9 | -9.8 | -12.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 56% | 15% | 14% | 15% | +9.8 | -5.6 | -2.2 | -1.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 65% | 11% | 12% | 12% | -3.3 | +25.3 | -3.2 | -18.8 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 61% | 23% | 10% | 6% | +4.6 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 67% | 18% | 9% | 6% | +11.8 | -0.8 | -11.4 | +0.3 |
| East 4 | Rumi Nikaido ron 1,300 from Namba Shibukawa | 80% | 13% | 4% | 4% | +2.7 | +1.7 | +0.5 | -4.9 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,600 from Rumi Nikaido | 85% | 11% | 2% | 2% | -2.1 | -2.3 | +6.0 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000 | 85% | 9% | 3% | 2% | +3.2 | -6.6 | +7.5 | -4.1 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 93% | 2% | 3% | 1% | -8.4 | -14.5 | +30.9 | -8.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,800 from Jun Murakami | 83% | 2% | 14% | 1% | -3.5 | -11.4 | +13.7 | +1.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 74% | 0% | 25% | 1% | +10.5 | +0.5 | -10.7 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 93% | 0% | 7% | 1% | -5.0 | +10.9 | -1.2 | -4.6 |