Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/19 Game 1
Nikaido Rumi finished 1st (+58.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Nikaido Rumi tsumo 12,000, which moved Nikaido Rumi's expected points by +31.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +8.5 | -2.6 | -2.9 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 22% | 23% | 24% | +31.0 | -10.7 | -12.1 | -8.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 3,000 | 56% | 14% | 14% | 16% | +9.2 | -5.2 | -0.7 | -3.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 64% | 11% | 12% | 12% | -3.3 | +27.8 | -3.8 | -20.7 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Rumi ron 1,300 from Kurosawa Saki | 61% | 24% | 10% | 6% | +6.9 | -3.2 | -2.8 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Rumi ron 3,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 69% | 19% | 8% | 4% | +8.5 | -0.3 | -10.3 | +2.2 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Rumi ron 1,300 from Shibukawa Namba | 79% | 13% | 3% | 4% | +5.0 | +1.2 | +0.4 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 1,600 from Nikaido Rumi | 86% | 10% | 2% | 2% | -2.7 | -2.6 | +5.6 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 4,000 | 86% | 9% | 3% | 2% | +2.5 | -5.8 | +8.2 | -4.9 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 93% | 3% | 3% | 1% | -8.5 | -15.3 | +30.6 | -6.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 5,800 from Murakami Jun | 82% | 2% | 15% | 1% | -3.9 | -10.6 | +14.0 | +0.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Nikaido Rumi ron 2,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 73% | 0% | 26% | 1% | +11.7 | +0.4 | -11.8 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | Murakami Jun ron 8,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 94% | 0% | 5% | 1% | -5.5 | +10.7 | -0.6 | -4.6 |