Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/20 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+51.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +33.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 23% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +1.5 | -0.6 | +12.9 | -13.8 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 24% | 24% | 35% | 17% | +1.1 | -20.5 | +2.5 | +16.9 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 13% | 35% | 28% | -10.8 | -2.8 | +17.5 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 10% | 53% | 23% | -2.3 | -3.6 | +2.9 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 14% | 7% | 54% | 25% | -0.6 | -24.7 | -7.8 | +33.1 |
| East 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 6,000 | 10% | 2% | 40% | 49% | -4.3 | -1.7 | -11.3 | +17.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 7% | 2% | 23% | 68% | +20.3 | -3.0 | +2.7 | -20.0 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 18% | 1% | 32% | 48% | -14.4 | +6.6 | +2.8 | +4.9 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 2% | 34% | 56% | -12.1 | +25.6 | -8.5 | -5.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 7% | 8% | 30% | 55% | +0.6 | +44.1 | -41.5 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 6% | 36% | 8% | 49% | -4.3 | -3.5 | +5.9 | +1.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 5% | 32% | 10% | 53% | +16.4 | +0.2 | -23.6 | +6.9 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 8% | 26% | 1% | 65% | +14.8 | -54.8 | +27.2 | +12.9 |