Game · 2022-23 Regular Season

12/20 Game 2

Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+51.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +32.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance	Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance	Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance	Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance	Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change	Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change	Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change	Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change
East 1	Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi	24%	26%	25%	25%	-1.9	+2.2	+13.9	-14.2
East 2	Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	22%	26%	35%	17%	+1.6	-19.8	+0.8	+17.4
East 3	Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000	23%	14%	36%	27%	-8.0	-4.6	+18.8	-6.2
East 3, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	16%	11%	52%	20%	-3.5	-4.5	+1.2	+6.7
East 3, 2 honba	Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	14%	8%	53%	25%	-2.7	-24.4	-5.1	+32.1
East 4	Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000	8%	2%	41%	49%	-2.8	-2.5	-10.3	+15.6
East 4, 1 honba	Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi	6%	1%	26%	67%	+21.4	-1.6	-1.2	-18.6
South 1	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori	19%	1%	31%	49%	-14.2	+6.3	+3.1	+4.8
South 2	Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000	9%	2%	33%	56%	-11.4	+26.4	-6.5	-8.4
South 2, 1 honba	Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki	8%	10%	32%	50%	-0.3	+42.4	-43.6	+1.5
South 2, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	7%	35%	7%	51%	-5.6	-2.8	+6.8	+1.7
South 3, 3 honba	Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki	5%	31%	9%	55%	+18.0	-0.7	-23.0	+5.7
South 4	Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto	9%	26%	1%	65%	+13.5	-53.6	+27.0	+13.0

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)