Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/22 Game 1
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+62.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -21.5 | -1.6 | -1.4 | +24.5 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000 | 12% | 23% | 22% | 44% | -11.1 | +44.1 | -14.4 | -18.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 6% | 61% | 12% | 22% | -9.7 | -1.3 | -2.7 | +13.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 57% | 9% | 30% | +2.4 | -2.1 | +1.1 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 1,500 | 4% | 56% | 10% | 30% | -5.0 | -1.9 | +10.4 | -3.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 55% | 15% | 28% | +16.7 | -1.6 | -12.4 | -2.8 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 56% | 9% | 28% | -1.5 | +7.5 | -0.8 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Sho Shiratori | 6% | 65% | 9% | 20% | +14.5 | -0.2 | -13.9 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 65% | 5% | 20% | -5.4 | +5.1 | +1.5 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 73% | 5% | 17% | -6.6 | -14.3 | -8.7 | +29.6 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 1% | 50% | 2% | 46% | -10.2 | +0.2 | +10.8 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 50% | 3% | 46% | -2.0 | +11.7 | -2.3 | -7.3 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 73% | 0% | 27% | -9.0 | +15.5 | +7.1 | -13.6 |