Game · 2022-23 Regular Season
12/23 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+70.4pt). The game was decided in East 3: Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +38.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 0.0 | -21.8 | +0.8 | +21.0 |
| East 2 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 14% | 24% | 40% | -5.3 | -14.9 | +26.1 | -5.9 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 18,000 | 17% | 6% | 44% | 32% | -12.4 | -9.2 | +38.3 | -16.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 2% | 82% | 11% | -1.6 | -2.3 | +2.9 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 1% | 84% | 11% | -8.4 | -5.4 | -17.3 | +31.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 2% | 61% | 34% | 0.0 | -1.2 | +3.9 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 68% | 28% | +3.9 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,500 from Arisa Date | 4% | 1% | 68% | 28% | +7.6 | -0.5 | +0.4 | -7.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 6% | 1% | 71% | 22% | -22.1 | +16.5 | +3.9 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Arisa Date | 0% | 2% | 79% | 19% | -3.1 | +16.4 | +2.7 | -16.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 4% | 85% | 10% | -3.2 | +1.9 | -3.0 | +4.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 1% | 5% | 81% | 14% | -13.7 | -0.5 | +15.0 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 95% | 5% | -3.4 | -3.9 | -7.4 | +14.8 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 90% | 10% | -0.5 | +1.6 | +4.8 | -6.0 |