Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/10 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+72.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +42.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 26% | 25% | 23% | +42.4 | -14.8 | -15.5 | -12.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 60% | 14% | 13% | 13% | -0.2 | +1.9 | -1.7 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 61% | 13% | 13% | 13% | -8.2 | -10.5 | -6.1 | +24.8 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 52% | 10% | 11% | 28% | +4.2 | -1.0 | +10.2 | -13.4 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 59% | 8% | 15% | 18% | +13.7 | +0.1 | -14.8 | +0.9 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 74% | 6% | 5% | 15% | +15.8 | -15.3 | +1.2 | -1.7 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 90% | 2% | 2% | 6% | -9.8 | -6.0 | -5.3 | +21.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 80% | 1% | 2% | 17% | -1.3 | +5.2 | -2.5 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 6,000 | 80% | 2% | 2% | 16% | -3.1 | +13.9 | -6.5 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 78% | 3% | 2% | 16% | +21.4 | +2.3 | -21.8 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -5.9 | -4.6 | -9.0 | +19.5 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 87% | 0% | 0% | 13% | -2.2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | +4.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 84% | 0% | 0% | 16% | +4.3 | -1.2 | +9.7 | -12.7 |