Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/10 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+72.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +42.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +42.5 | -14.2 | -15.5 | -12.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 61% | 12% | 14% | 13% | +0.6 | -0.1 | -1.1 | +0.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 5,200 | 61% | 13% | 12% | 14% | -10.2 | -6.4 | -6.0 | +22.6 |
| East 2 | Mizuhara Akina ron 3,900 from Nikaido Aki | 51% | 12% | 11% | 26% | +2.2 | -3.2 | +10.8 | -9.8 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 56% | 9% | 14% | 21% | +17.7 | +0.2 | -16.8 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 75% | 6% | 5% | 14% | +15.2 | -15.8 | +1.4 | -0.8 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 90% | 1% | 2% | 6% | -9.8 | -3.6 | -5.6 | +19.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 81% | 2% | 2% | 16% | -0.7 | +2.5 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,000 | 81% | 1% | 2% | 17% | -3.7 | +15.9 | -7.3 | -4.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 79% | 4% | 2% | 15% | +21.6 | +0.3 | -20.6 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -6.0 | -3.8 | -9.5 | +19.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 87% | 0% | 0% | 13% | -2.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 85% | 0% | 0% | 15% | +4.0 | -1.5 | +9.7 | -12.2 |