Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Semifinals

4/10 Game 1

Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+72.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +42.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Sasaki Hisato● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Mizuhara Akina● Nikaido Aki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Sasaki● Matsumoto● Mizuhara● Nikaido
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Mizuhara Akina
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Mizuhara Akina
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
East 1Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,00026%24%25%25%+42.5-14.2-15.5-12.8
East 1, 1 honbaDraw61%12%14%13%+0.6-0.1-1.1+0.6
East 1, 2 honbaNikaido Aki tsumo 5,20061%13%12%14%-10.2-6.4-6.0+22.6
East 2Mizuhara Akina ron 3,900 from Nikaido Aki51%12%11%26%+2.2-3.2+10.8-9.8
East 3Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina56%9%14%21%+17.7+0.2-16.8-1.1
East 4Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro75%6%5%14%+15.2-15.8+1.4-0.8
South 1Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,00090%1%2%6%-9.8-3.6-5.6+19.0
South 2Draw81%2%2%16%-0.7+2.5-1.2-0.7
South 2, 1 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,00081%1%2%17%-3.7+15.9-7.3-4.8
South 2, 2 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina79%4%2%15%+21.6+0.3-20.6-1.3
South 3Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,00096%0%0%4%-6.0-3.8-9.5+19.3
South 4Draw87%0%0%13%-2.2-0.9-0.6+3.7
South 4, 1 honbaMizuhara Akina tsumo 8,00085%0%0%15%+4.0-1.5+9.7-12.2

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)