Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series

4/10 Game 2

Takaharu Ooi finished 1st (+62.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000, which moved Takaharu Ooi's expected points by +35.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Takaharu Ooi● Yu Suzuki● Mari Takamiya● Takaya Matsugase0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Takaharu● Yu● Mari● Takaya
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultYu Suzuki
1st-place chance
Mari Takamiya
1st-place chance
Takaya Matsugase
1st-place chance
Takaharu Ooi
1st-place chance
Yu Suzuki
Expected pt change
Mari Takamiya
Expected pt change
Takaya Matsugase
Expected pt change
Takaharu Ooi
Expected pt change
East 1Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,00024%25%25%27%-18.4-8.0-9.4+35.9
East 2Yu Suzuki tsumo 8,00011%17%16%56%+22.2-14.4-3.2-4.5
East 3Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,00024%10%16%51%-3.0+12.6-8.0-1.6
East 4Exhaustive draw22%16%11%51%-4.6-1.1+4.6+1.1
East 4, 1 honbaTakaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Yu Suzuki18%16%13%53%-17.3-1.70.0+19.0
East 4, 2 honbaYu Suzuki ron 1,300 from Takaharu Ooi9%10%9%73%+5.1+0.5-0.7-4.9
South 1Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,0009%11%10%70%-19.8+32.6-8.1-4.7
South 2Yu Suzuki ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase2%29%6%63%+13.7-2.1-14.5+2.9
South 3Exhaustive draw3%25%3%68%-2.3+6.5+1.8-6.0
South 3, 1 honbaTakaya Matsugase tsumo 12,0003%36%4%57%-17.0-14.7+38.9-7.3
South 3, 2 honbaYu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase1%25%20%53%+29.3+4.9-37.9+3.6
South 4Takaharu Ooi tsumo 18,00010%27%1%62%-10.1-18.4-6.7+35.1
South 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw0%0%0%100%+4.1-3.0-2.5+1.3
South 4, 2 honbaTakaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi0%0%0%100%-23.2+7.8+25.1-9.6

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)