Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/11 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 27% | +6.2 | -3.4 | -0.8 | -1.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 22% | 24% | 25% | -20.5 | +36.9 | -8.2 | -8.3 |
| East 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 15% | 52% | 16% | 17% | +24.7 | -24.7 | +1.2 | -1.2 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 7,800 | 32% | 30% | 19% | 19% | -7.7 | -6.2 | +19.8 | -5.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 26% | 25% | 33% | 16% | +3.7 | -4.3 | +3.9 | -3.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 7,700 from Honda Tomohiro | 29% | 23% | 35% | 14% | -23.2 | -0.6 | +23.2 | +0.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 12% | 19% | 57% | 12% | -23.0 | +30.4 | -4.6 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 41% | 47% | 9% | -0.3 | -2.4 | +9.0 | -6.3 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 3% | 35% | 58% | 5% | -18.4 | -0.6 | +0.7 | +18.3 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 32% | 59% | 8% | -4.0 | +31.8 | -20.1 | -7.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 74% | 22% | 4% | -0.6 | -29.0 | +29.5 | 0.0 |
| South 3 | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 0% | 28% | 69% | 4% | +4.1 | -8.1 | +23.9 | -20.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 5% | 95% | 0% | -0.5 | -2.3 | -1.7 | +4.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 2% | 98% | 1% | +26.4 | -2.0 | -0.7 | -23.8 |