Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/11 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +29.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +4.8 | -2.6 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 23% | 23% | 25% | -18.7 | +36.0 | -8.8 | -8.5 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 15% | 51% | 16% | 18% | +22.0 | -20.7 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 7,800 | 31% | 33% | 17% | 19% | -6.1 | -9.3 | +22.6 | -7.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 26% | 32% | 15% | +3.3 | -5.4 | +2.5 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 7,700 from Tomohiro Honda | 29% | 22% | 34% | 15% | -23.7 | +0.1 | +25.1 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 11% | 18% | 58% | 12% | -22.7 | +28.9 | -4.7 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 39% | 49% | 9% | +0.2 | -0.9 | +8.1 | -7.4 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 3% | 34% | 57% | 5% | -18.7 | +0.7 | -0.7 | +18.7 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 34% | 56% | 10% | -3.3 | +31.2 | -18.9 | -9.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 75% | 21% | 4% | -1.3 | -29.3 | +29.7 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 28% | 68% | 4% | +3.8 | -7.7 | +23.9 | -20.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 5% | 94% | 0% | -0.1 | -3.0 | -0.9 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 98% | 0% | +26.4 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -24.0 |