Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/11 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+82.7pt). The game was decided in South 2: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +36.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -16.3 | +34.9 | -7.8 | -10.8 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 52% | 19% | 16% | -2.9 | -7.1 | +10.8 | -0.8 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 47% | 24% | 17% | -0.8 | -0.4 | +4.1 | -3.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 45% | 26% | 17% | -9.4 | -3.4 | -11.5 | +24.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 42% | 19% | 31% | +3.2 | +3.4 | -9.9 | +3.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 9% | 45% | 14% | 32% | -3.5 | +8.5 | +0.3 | -5.3 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 55% | 13% | 25% | -5.9 | +0.9 | -4.7 | +9.7 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 55% | 10% | 32% | -7.4 | +36.3 | -10.7 | -18.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 94% | 2% | 4% | -3.6 | +14.7 | -6.5 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 1% | -5.3 | -3.0 | +11.6 | -3.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | -2.2 | -0.2 | +5.4 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | -1.8 | -1.3 | +6.9 | -3.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | +1.2 | -1.6 | +4.2 | -3.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 97% | 2% | 1% | -2.0 | +3.8 | +0.3 | -2.1 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -2.3 | -1.3 | +1.3 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +30.7 | -0.2 | +5.7 | -36.3 |