Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/13 Game 1
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+54.9pt). The game was decided in South 2: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +18.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -3.2 | -3.5 | +6.2 | +0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 21% | 30% | 26% | -3.6 | +8.2 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 29% | 27% | 24% | -1.7 | -5.6 | -4.3 | +11.6 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Takaharu Ooi | 19% | 23% | 25% | 33% | -15.0 | +16.9 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 11% | 36% | 22% | 32% | -1.2 | +11.6 | -9.9 | -0.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 46% | 15% | 29% | +2.6 | -2.0 | +5.0 | -5.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 11% | 45% | 19% | 25% | -8.4 | -0.2 | -2.1 | +10.7 |
| South 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 44% | 16% | 34% | -5.7 | -6.6 | -5.7 | +18.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 33% | 11% | 53% | +0.3 | -6.4 | -9.6 | +15.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 2% | 16% | 2% | 80% | -8.7 | -31.9 | +33.9 | +6.6 |