Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/13 Game 1
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+54.9pt). The game was decided in South 2: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +20.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -4.6 | -3.3 | +8.5 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 23% | 31% | 25% | -0.2 | +7.8 | -5.3 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 29% | 27% | 24% | -3.4 | -5.9 | -3.2 | +12.5 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Ooi Takaharu | 19% | 23% | 25% | 33% | -12.2 | +14.0 | -0.2 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 13% | 34% | 24% | 30% | -1.7 | +13.9 | -12.4 | +0.2 |
| South 1 | Draw | 11% | 47% | 15% | 27% | +3.7 | -4.5 | +5.5 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 1,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 13% | 43% | 20% | 24% | -10.1 | +3.8 | -2.4 | +8.7 |
| South 2 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 4,000 | 6% | 47% | 16% | 31% | -4.8 | -9.5 | -6.6 | +20.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 3% | 30% | 11% | 55% | -1.7 | -4.4 | -8.4 | +14.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 1% | 16% | 2% | 80% | -8.0 | -32.5 | +33.8 | +6.8 |