Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/14 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +37.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +5.9 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -0.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 30% | 23% | 22% | 25% | -4.2 | -1.8 | +1.4 | +4.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 22% | 24% | 28% | +2.8 | -4.3 | -0.5 | +2.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 18% | 22% | 31% | -1.9 | -2.8 | +9.7 | -5.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 16% | 30% | 27% | -6.7 | -5.3 | -17.2 | +29.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 13% | 15% | 52% | -2.0 | +5.7 | -3.0 | -0.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Tomohiro Honda | 20% | 15% | 14% | 51% | -2.3 | +20.5 | -1.6 | -16.7 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 30% | 16% | 35% | -34.8 | +37.7 | +0.7 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 1% | 70% | 9% | 21% | +23.5 | +3.8 | +2.0 | -29.2 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Tomohiro Honda | 4% | 80% | 9% | 7% | +2.2 | +14.4 | +1.0 | -17.6 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 97% | 0% | 2% | -14.5 | -4.2 | -14.7 | +33.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 93% | 0% | 6% | -13.7 | +2.2 | +28.7 | -17.2 |