Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/14 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+62.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +35.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 26% | 23% | +4.8 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 29% | 23% | 24% | 24% | -1.6 | -3.6 | +0.1 | +5.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 27% | 22% | 22% | 28% | -0.3 | -1.8 | -0.8 | +2.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 19% | 22% | 32% | -1.2 | -3.4 | +10.8 | -6.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 18% | 31% | 25% | -5.9 | -6.5 | -18.0 | +30.4 |
| East 4 | Draw | 20% | 13% | 15% | 52% | -2.9 | +7.0 | -2.3 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Honda Tomohiro | 18% | 16% | 15% | 51% | -3.9 | +21.6 | -1.9 | -15.9 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 16% | 32% | 15% | 36% | -32.4 | +35.3 | +1.3 | -4.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 1% | 69% | 8% | 21% | +24.7 | +5.1 | -0.1 | -29.7 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Honda Tomohiro | 3% | 82% | 8% | 7% | +0.3 | +13.2 | +2.1 | -15.6 |
| South 4 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 97% | 1% | 2% | -13.7 | -4.7 | -13.8 | +32.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 93% | 1% | 6% | -13.6 | +2.4 | +28.4 | -17.2 |