Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/14 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+95.9pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +25.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +5.8 | -1.3 | -3.6 | -0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -11.0 | -5.8 | +23.9 | -7.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 21% | 41% | 18% | -0.9 | +2.8 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 21% | 40% | 19% | -5.7 | -13.8 | +25.7 | -6.1 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 10% | 66% | 12% | -7.7 | -6.9 | +24.0 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 5% | 3% | 87% | 5% | -8.5 | -6.8 | +24.5 | -9.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 0% | 98% | 1% | +9.5 | -3.6 | -3.2 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 0% | 98% | 1% | -25.9 | +27.1 | +0.7 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | +3.7 | -2.8 | -1.3 | +0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 1% | 98% | 0% | -14.3 | +11.8 | 0.0 | +2.5 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | -3.2 | +0.7 | +2.4 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.8 | -0.8 | -2.3 | +3.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -6.0 | +2.6 | +4.7 | -1.3 |