Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/14 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+95.9pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +27.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 24% | +4.8 | -2.6 | -1.8 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -13.7 | -6.3 | +24.4 | -4.4 |
| East 2 | Draw | 18% | 19% | 42% | 21% | -1.1 | +7.4 | -3.0 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 24% | 40% | 18% | -4.8 | -16.5 | +27.2 | -6.0 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 11% | 65% | 12% | -8.9 | -7.7 | +24.7 | -8.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 3% | 88% | 5% | -7.4 | -7.5 | +24.0 | -9.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +10.4 | -1.9 | -4.7 | -3.8 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 1% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -25.0 | +24.9 | +2.1 | -2.0 |
| South 1 | Draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | +2.5 | -1.8 | -1.7 | +1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Nikaido Aki | 1% | 1% | 98% | 0% | -13.3 | +13.2 | -0.5 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 1% | 98% | 0% | -4.5 | -0.6 | +3.3 | +1.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.8 | -1.2 | -2.4 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -5.8 | +2.5 | +5.0 | -1.6 |