Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/17 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+57.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 4 honba: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +32.1 | -11.7 | -9.4 | -11.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 50% | 17% | 18% | 16% | -3.3 | -1.4 | +3.8 | +0.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 47% | 17% | 19% | 17% | +16.6 | -2.7 | -12.5 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 64% | 10% | 11% | 14% | -33.8 | -1.1 | +34.8 | +0.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 32% | 15% | 36% | 18% | -4.9 | +0.8 | +6.8 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 7,800 | 27% | 14% | 43% | 16% | -12.0 | -9.6 | +25.8 | -4.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 14% | 7% | 68% | 12% | +4.7 | +1.7 | +0.7 | -7.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 17% | 7% | 68% | 8% | +44.1 | -2.2 | -40.0 | -2.0 |
| East 4 | Shiratori Sho ron 7,700 from Takizawa Kazunori | 61% | 6% | 25% | 8% | +2.2 | -1.6 | -21.6 | +21.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,600 from Nakabayashi Kei | 66% | 7% | 12% | 16% | -4.8 | +6.1 | +2.1 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 62% | 10% | 15% | 13% | -0.7 | +32.8 | -32.7 | +0.6 |
| South 2 | Kurosawa Saki ron 9,600 from Takizawa Kazunori | 61% | 23% | 3% | 13% | -8.3 | +25.4 | -15.2 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,300 from Takizawa Kazunori | 43% | 48% | 1% | 8% | +9.4 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 3,900 | 53% | 39% | 1% | 7% | -2.1 | 0.0 | +3.9 | -1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 1,100 | 52% | 41% | 1% | 6% | -6.6 | +10.9 | -4.0 | -0.4 |
| South 4 | Shiratori Sho ron 2,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 36% | 59% | 0% | 5% | +9.9 | -13.9 | 0.0 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 3,000 | 60% | 34% | 0% | 7% | -2.9 | -1.6 | -1.3 | +5.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 57% | 34% | 0% | 10% | +19.0 | -15.5 | +5.1 | -8.6 |