Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/17 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+57.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 4 honba: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +46.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +31.6 | -9.8 | -11.8 | -9.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 17% | 16% | 17% | -4.4 | -1.8 | +6.1 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 46% | 17% | 20% | 18% | +17.1 | -3.0 | -12.5 | -1.6 |
| East 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 64% | 10% | 12% | 13% | -32.8 | -1.5 | +34.5 | -0.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 14% | 37% | 17% | -3.7 | -0.5 | +4.9 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 7,800 | 29% | 13% | 41% | 17% | -12.0 | -7.8 | +27.7 | -7.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 7% | 69% | 10% | -0.1 | +4.7 | +1.5 | -6.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 14% | 8% | 70% | 8% | +46.4 | -4.7 | -41.9 | +0.2 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 7,700 from Kazunori Takizawa | 60% | 7% | 24% | 9% | +3.0 | -1.9 | -20.5 | +19.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 66% | 7% | 12% | 16% | -3.5 | +5.4 | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 64% | 9% | 13% | 14% | -3.0 | +34.8 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 9,600 from Kazunori Takizawa | 59% | 26% | 3% | 12% | -6.4 | +23.0 | -14.0 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,300 from Kazunori Takizawa | 43% | 48% | 1% | 8% | +7.0 | -2.6 | -3.8 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,900 | 51% | 41% | 0% | 7% | -0.9 | -2.1 | +4.7 | -1.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 1,100 | 51% | 40% | 1% | 7% | -5.4 | +12.3 | -5.2 | -1.7 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 37% | 59% | 0% | 4% | +9.1 | -14.0 | +0.2 | +4.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 60% | 34% | 0% | 7% | -2.7 | -2.8 | -1.3 | +6.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 57% | 32% | 0% | 11% | +18.7 | -14.6 | +5.1 | -9.3 |