Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/18 Game 1
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+58.3pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +11.4 | -1.5 | -7.9 | -2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 7,800 | 33% | 24% | 20% | 23% | +17.5 | -7.4 | -5.1 | -5.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 18% | 16% | 20% | -13.3 | +23.8 | -6.5 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Yu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 34% | 35% | 13% | 18% | -1.7 | +27.0 | -23.4 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 26% | 57% | 4% | 13% | -0.1 | -0.6 | -7.0 | +7.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 57% | 3% | 15% | -2.5 | +0.6 | +4.1 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 23% | 59% | 3% | 15% | -1.2 | -3.6 | -15.1 | +20.0 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki | 21% | 52% | 1% | 26% | +28.3 | -22.6 | -1.8 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 50% | 27% | 1% | 22% | +7.2 | -0.9 | -3.1 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 24% | 1% | 16% | -2.2 | +5.5 | +0.5 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 27% | 1% | 15% | -21.4 | +36.4 | -4.9 | -10.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki | 21% | 73% | 0% | 7% | +33.4 | -31.2 | +0.5 | -2.6 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 18,000 | 72% | 22% | 0% | 5% | -6.4 | -6.7 | +22.2 | -9.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki | 71% | 23% | 2% | 5% | +5.5 | -36.0 | +29.5 | +1.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 85% | 2% | 6% | 7% | +4.4 | +19.4 | -2.9 | -20.9 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 7,800 | 93% | 4% | 0% | 2% | -5.3 | -8.3 | -15.3 | +28.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 87% | 3% | 0% | 9% | +5.5 | +11.4 | -9.0 | -7.9 |