Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/20 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+56.7pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +39.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -12.1 | +8.9 | +3.1 | +0.1 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 31% | 27% | 24% | -5.3 | -11.4 | -7.3 | +23.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 20% | 21% | 45% | -3.8 | -0.5 | -4.0 | +8.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 12% | 20% | 16% | 53% | +39.5 | -3.4 | -33.1 | -3.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 15% | 4% | 48% | +5.9 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 15% | 4% | 42% | +5.3 | -2.0 | -0.4 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 45% | 14% | 3% | 37% | +4.1 | -1.7 | +24.7 | -27.1 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 57% | 13% | 12% | 18% | -1.0 | +16.3 | -15.2 | -0.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 21% | 6% | 17% | +1.6 | +4.1 | -7.4 | +1.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 56% | 24% | 3% | 17% | +24.7 | -15.2 | -3.6 | -5.9 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 88% | 3% | 2% | 7% | -5.7 | 0.0 | +6.0 | -0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 7,800 | 84% | 5% | 3% | 9% | -5.1 | -7.7 | +22.1 | -9.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 4,000 | 79% | 4% | 9% | 9% | +2.6 | -7.1 | -18.5 | +23.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 86% | 1% | 0% | 12% | +5.4 | +2.1 | -5.9 | -1.7 |