Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Semifinals

4/20 Game 1

Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+56.7pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +37.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1South 2End● Honda Tomohiro● Katsumata Kenji● Ooi Takaharu● Kobayashi Go0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Honda● Katsumata● Ooi● Kobayashi
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHonda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Ooi Takaharu
1st-place chance
Kobayashi Go
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Ooi Takaharu
Expected pt change
Kobayashi Go
Expected pt change
East 1Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro24%25%25%26%-8.9+8.5-0.3+0.6
East 2Kobayashi Go tsumo 8,00019%30%26%26%-5.4-11.0-6.9+23.3
East 3Draw14%21%20%45%-2.6-0.9-4.1+7.7
East 4, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu13%19%16%52%+37.0-1.6-30.5-4.9
South 1Draw36%15%4%45%+5.1-2.5-1.1-1.5
South 1, 1 honbaDraw40%15%4%42%+6.3-2.0-0.5-3.8
South 1, 2 honbaOoi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Kobayashi Go46%13%4%38%+4.1-1.2+24.5-27.4
South 2Katsumata Kenji ron 5,800 from Ooi Takaharu58%14%11%17%+0.4+16.9-15.5-1.9
South 2, 1 honbaDraw58%22%5%15%+0.1+4.2-7.9+3.6
South 2, 2 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 8,00055%25%4%17%+25.0-16.4-3.6-5.0
South 3Ooi Takaharu ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro89%3%2%7%-6.3+1.0+7.7-2.3
South 3, 1 honbaOoi Takaharu tsumo 7,80083%5%4%8%-4.9-8.6+21.3-7.8
South 3, 2 honbaKobayashi Go tsumo 4,00078%4%9%9%+2.6-5.7-19.3+22.5
South 4Draw86%2%1%12%+5.8+0.6-5.6-0.8

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)