Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/20 Game 2
Shiratori Sho finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000, which moved Shiratori Sho's expected points by +38.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +6.5 | -3.9 | +0.3 | -2.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,800 from Matsugase Takaya | 29% | 22% | 24% | 25% | +17.2 | -1.3 | -15.1 | -0.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,100 | 43% | 21% | 15% | 22% | -3.6 | -0.6 | -1.5 | +5.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 39% | 20% | 15% | 26% | -3.3 | +5.8 | -3.4 | +1.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 36% | 24% | 13% | 27% | -0.3 | -4.9 | -2.2 | +7.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 36% | 20% | 12% | 32% | -3.7 | -1.9 | +6.7 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 33% | 20% | 15% | 31% | -1.1 | -2.1 | -5.2 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,800 | 32% | 18% | 12% | 38% | -10.7 | -9.0 | -7.6 | +27.3 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Draw | 19% | 10% | 6% | 66% | +4.7 | -3.1 | -2.4 | +0.8 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 22% | 8% | 5% | 65% | -1.9 | -2.2 | +16.6 | -12.5 |
| South 1 | Draw | 24% | 9% | 12% | 55% | -5.3 | +5.1 | -2.2 | +2.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 18% | 11% | 11% | 60% | -2.2 | +13.8 | -2.3 | -9.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 20% | 12% | 50% | -14.5 | +38.9 | -9.6 | -14.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,600 from Shiratori Sho | 8% | 56% | 8% | 28% | +11.3 | -6.1 | -3.9 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 14% | 52% | 6% | 28% | -37.3 | +0.1 | +36.8 | +0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 51% | 20% | 28% | +38.9 | +0.5 | -30.2 | -9.3 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 4,800 from Nakabayashi Kei | 16% | 59% | 7% | 19% | -23.0 | -5.2 | +4.3 | +23.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 5% | 44% | 5% | 46% | -16.1 | +28.7 | +4.0 | -16.6 |