Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/20 Game 2
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 2 honba: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +43.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 26% | 25% | +9.8 | -2.9 | -3.7 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,800 from Takaya Matsugase | 29% | 25% | 23% | 23% | +16.4 | -0.1 | -16.8 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100 | 43% | 22% | 13% | 22% | -3.9 | -2.4 | 0.0 | +6.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 20% | 13% | 27% | -4.2 | +4.3 | -2.7 | +2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 24% | 13% | 28% | +2.1 | -6.3 | -1.4 | +5.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 18% | 12% | 32% | -2.6 | -0.3 | +4.8 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 19% | 14% | 31% | -0.3 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +6.9 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 35% | 16% | 12% | 37% | -12.4 | -8.9 | -8.2 | +29.5 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 9% | 6% | 67% | +1.5 | -2.2 | -1.2 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 20% | 8% | 5% | 67% | -0.2 | -1.4 | +15.0 | -13.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 9% | 12% | 56% | -3.8 | +3.6 | -1.4 | +1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 19% | 11% | 12% | 58% | -3.2 | +13.1 | -3.4 | -6.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 18% | 11% | 52% | -15.3 | +43.3 | -10.2 | -17.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,600 from Sho Shiratori | 8% | 60% | 6% | 27% | +12.1 | -9.4 | -3.1 | +0.4 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 15% | 50% | 6% | 29% | -37.7 | +0.7 | +37.3 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 50% | 20% | 28% | +39.5 | +0.3 | -30.0 | -9.8 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 4,800 from Kei Nakabayashi | 16% | 59% | 7% | 19% | -24.1 | -3.3 | +4.4 | +23.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 5% | 46% | 5% | 44% | -15.4 | +27.0 | +3.7 | -15.3 |