Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/21 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+71.6pt). The game was decided in South 2: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +55.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 25% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -8.9 | +5.5 | +2.4 | +1.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 29% | 26% | 26% | +0.4 | +6.0 | -2.6 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 19% | 33% | 24% | 23% | +0.3 | -8.9 | -1.6 | +10.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 27% | 23% | 32% | +2.3 | +0.1 | -4.7 | +2.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 27% | 18% | 35% | -2.3 | -3.5 | +7.9 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 20% | 25% | 25% | 31% | -16.6 | -2.7 | -2.6 | +21.9 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000 | 8% | 19% | 20% | 54% | -13.9 | +55.8 | -16.3 | -25.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 77% | 6% | 15% | -3.7 | +21.3 | -8.6 | -9.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 95% | 2% | 3% | +10.8 | -2.7 | -6.7 | -1.5 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 96% | 1% | 3% | -13.8 | -6.3 | +33.6 | -13.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 91% | 6% | 3% | +3.1 | +2.3 | -2.4 | -2.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -1.6 | -1.6 | -2.1 | +5.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 96% | 0% | 4% | -8.2 | +5.8 | +7.7 | -5.2 |