Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/21 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+71.6pt). The game was decided in South 2: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +55.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -7.4 | +6.1 | +0.1 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 20% | 30% | 24% | 25% | -2.4 | +6.5 | -1.3 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,600 from Nakabayashi Kei | 19% | 33% | 25% | 24% | +2.0 | -8.9 | +0.5 | +6.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 21% | 26% | 25% | 28% | +4.0 | -3.8 | -5.8 | +5.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 23% | 24% | 19% | 34% | -4.4 | +1.4 | +6.5 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 20% | 25% | 25% | 30% | -15.7 | -4.5 | -2.3 | +22.5 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 18,000 | 8% | 19% | 20% | 53% | -14.0 | +55.2 | -16.5 | -24.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 77% | 7% | 15% | -4.2 | +22.3 | -9.1 | -9.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 95% | 2% | 4% | +10.6 | -3.2 | -6.3 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 95% | 1% | 3% | -14.2 | -5.7 | +33.3 | -13.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 92% | 5% | 3% | +3.6 | +1.9 | -2.4 | -3.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -1.9 | -1.0 | -1.7 | +4.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 96% | 1% | 3% | -8.3 | +5.4 | +7.6 | -4.6 |