Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/24 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+54.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +37.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 24% | 25% | 24% | 27% | -8.9 | -4.0 | +0.8 | +12.1 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 18% | 22% | 25% | 36% | +16.8 | -14.2 | +0.1 | -2.7 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 29% | 14% | 25% | 33% | -17.1 | +18.3 | -2.0 | +0.9 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 25% | 24% | 33% | -10.2 | -8.7 | +37.6 | -18.7 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 15% | 58% | 17% | -18.7 | -9.8 | -11.6 | +40.2 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 2% | 8% | 39% | 51% | -4.8 | +16.8 | -4.2 | -7.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 2% | 18% | 37% | 43% | -0.2 | -19.2 | +21.2 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 3% | 63% | 33% | +17.3 | -11.5 | -2.9 | -2.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 1% | 69% | 28% | +6.0 | -8.8 | +14.8 | -12.0 |