Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
4/27 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+81.8pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +32.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +4.8 | -6.8 | +3.1 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 19% | 26% | 25% | +32.4 | -7.6 | -11.4 | -13.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 55% | 15% | 16% | 14% | +26.4 | 0.0 | -27.4 | +1.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 79% | 8% | 4% | 9% | -0.5 | -8.4 | -1.1 | +9.9 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 79% | 6% | 3% | 12% | -6.9 | +7.1 | -0.3 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 73% | 9% | 4% | 14% | -1.3 | +5.2 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 71% | 12% | 4% | 13% | -3.9 | +4.7 | -2.0 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 67% | 15% | 4% | 15% | -13.7 | +32.2 | -9.4 | -9.1 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Draw | 49% | 37% | 3% | 12% | -3.3 | +7.1 | -1.5 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 44% | 44% | 3% | 10% | +20.6 | -5.6 | -13.3 | -1.8 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 16,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 63% | 30% | 1% | 7% | -3.8 | -4.5 | -20.6 | +28.9 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei | 57% | 24% | 0% | 18% | -19.4 | -1.1 | +0.2 | +20.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,100 | 37% | 27% | 0% | 36% | +5.2 | -0.7 | +0.4 | -4.9 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 6,000 | 42% | 27% | 0% | 31% | +15.1 | -6.7 | -2.6 | -5.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 59% | 19% | 0% | 22% | +5.7 | -1.5 | -0.4 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 66% | 16% | 0% | 18% | -3.2 | +23.0 | -0.3 | -19.4 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 61% | 31% | 0% | 8% | -12.1 | +28.4 | -13.3 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 30% | 66% | 0% | 4% | +20.0 | -9.9 | -7.6 | -2.5 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 2,000 | 56% | 43% | 0% | 2% | +0.4 | -1.5 | -3.0 | +4.1 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,100 | 58% | 39% | 0% | 3% | +18.7 | -14.9 | +0.3 | -4.1 |