Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/27 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+81.8pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +31.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 23% | 27% | 24% | +5.5 | -3.4 | +1.4 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 22% | 25% | 23% | +31.3 | -9.3 | -10.7 | -11.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 54% | 15% | 17% | 14% | +27.5 | -0.5 | -29.7 | +2.7 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 80% | 8% | 3% | 9% | -1.5 | -6.6 | -0.7 | +8.8 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 80% | 6% | 3% | 11% | -6.0 | +6.1 | +0.6 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 9% | 4% | 13% | -2.3 | +6.5 | -4.1 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 71% | 12% | 3% | 14% | -2.8 | +1.9 | -0.2 | +1.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 67% | 13% | 4% | 16% | -12.5 | +33.2 | -8.9 | -11.8 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 36% | 3% | 10% | -3.7 | +6.8 | -2.3 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 45% | 42% | 2% | 10% | +19.6 | -6.1 | -12.3 | -1.2 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 16,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 64% | 28% | 1% | 7% | -1.9 | -5.2 | -21.4 | +28.4 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 60% | 23% | 0% | 17% | -21.8 | +2.1 | -0.1 | +19.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 37% | 28% | 0% | 35% | +4.2 | -1.5 | +0.3 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 41% | 27% | 0% | 32% | +15.6 | -5.3 | -2.1 | -8.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 21% | 0% | 21% | +6.1 | -3.5 | -1.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 65% | 16% | 0% | 19% | -3.9 | +24.8 | +0.5 | -21.4 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 59% | 34% | 0% | 7% | -11.6 | +27.5 | -12.8 | -3.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 30% | 67% | 0% | 3% | +19.3 | -9.9 | -8.3 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 2,000 | 54% | 44% | 0% | 2% | +2.4 | -2.0 | -3.1 | +2.7 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 59% | 39% | 0% | 2% | +17.8 | -15.1 | +0.5 | -3.3 |