Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/28 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in South 1: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +28.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +5.8 | -0.9 | -1.8 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 30% | 23% | 24% | 24% | -26.4 | +26.8 | -2.0 | +1.6 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,500 | 13% | 42% | 21% | 24% | -0.4 | +7.4 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 49% | 18% | 20% | -5.5 | -12.5 | -6.8 | +24.8 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 10% | 37% | 15% | 39% | -2.8 | +1.3 | -7.0 | +8.4 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 36% | 10% | 47% | -3.4 | -4.3 | +23.6 | -15.9 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 8% | 35% | 24% | 33% | -5.0 | -1.6 | -22.1 | +28.8 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 2% | 26% | 8% | 64% | +3.7 | -6.0 | -20.0 | +22.4 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 6% | 1% | 93% | -14.8 | -9.6 | +30.9 | -6.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 6% | 7% | 87% | -2.1 | +2.7 | +2.7 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 7% | 9% | 83% | +11.6 | -20.4 | +2.4 | +6.4 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 0% | 2% | 97% | +20.6 | -28.5 | +8.1 | -0.2 |