Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
4/28 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+59.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +46.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,800 from Namba Shibukawa | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +14.3 | -13.9 | +0.1 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 36% | 16% | 23% | 26% | -8.5 | +16.7 | -4.2 | -4.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 27% | 22% | 23% | -1.5 | +6.0 | -2.7 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 31% | 20% | 22% | -1.1 | +4.1 | -0.4 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 32% | 21% | 21% | -2.9 | -9.2 | +17.1 | -5.0 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 26% | 30% | 18% | -9.1 | -8.2 | -17.5 | +34.8 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 19% | 20% | 18% | 43% | -1.0 | -1.8 | +20.4 | -17.6 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 19% | 19% | 34% | 27% | -3.4 | +46.5 | -4.5 | -38.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 62% | 22% | 5% | +9.3 | -0.6 | -5.1 | -3.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,000 | 12% | 65% | 18% | 5% | -4.0 | +13.8 | -5.5 | -4.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 89% | 4% | 2% | +12.8 | +7.0 | -12.3 | -7.5 |