Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
5/1 Game 1
Sho Shiratori finished 1st (+62.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sho Shiratori's expected points by +46.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 6,400 from Tomohiro Honda | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | -1.1 | -15.6 | +16.9 | -0.2 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 18,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 21% | 15% | 38% | 26% | +0.4 | +47.2 | -4.4 | -43.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 6,000 | 19% | 46% | 29% | 6% | -6.3 | +13.8 | -3.4 | -4.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 58% | 25% | 4% | -1.5 | -2.3 | -3.3 | +7.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 60% | 23% | 5% | +4.7 | -0.2 | -5.0 | +0.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 15% | 62% | 18% | 5% | -3.0 | +2.1 | +7.5 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 63% | 22% | 3% | +32.1 | -14.8 | -10.4 | -6.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 38% | 44% | 17% | 2% | +19.1 | -8.0 | -9.6 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 59% | 30% | 10% | 2% | -16.4 | +25.2 | -5.0 | -3.8 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 32% | 60% | 7% | 1% | +27.5 | -21.5 | -2.8 | -3.2 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 22% | 4% | 0% | -9.6 | -9.1 | +23.4 | -4.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 64% | 20% | 15% | 1% | -23.8 | -16.7 | +46.4 | -5.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 8% | 69% | 0% | +11.7 | -6.8 | -4.5 | -0.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,400 from Kei Nakabayashi | 34% | 3% | 63% | 0% | -9.6 | +1.4 | +5.0 | +3.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 4% | 75% | 0% | -3.7 | -4.7 | +11.3 | -2.9 |