Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
5/2 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+56.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 25% | 23% | 25% | 27% | -8.3 | +2.3 | -0.1 | +6.1 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 19% | 25% | 26% | 31% | +1.6 | +29.5 | -28.4 | -2.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 19% | 47% | 9% | 26% | -3.8 | -1.8 | +5.8 | -0.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 16% | 47% | 11% | 25% | +4.9 | -2.8 | -6.8 | +4.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 1,100 | 19% | 44% | 8% | 29% | -2.3 | +10.4 | -1.8 | -6.2 |
| South 1 | Draw | 15% | 57% | 7% | 22% | -3.7 | +0.1 | +3.9 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 58% | 8% | 22% | -10.2 | +29.2 | -8.2 | -10.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 2% | 90% | 2% | 6% | +10.8 | -6.7 | -1.8 | -2.3 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 87% | 3% | 7% | -13.2 | -6.6 | +34.7 | -14.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 82% | 11% | 5% | -13.9 | -0.3 | -19.5 | +33.7 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 85% | 1% | 13% | -8.9 | +5.7 | +27.8 | -24.6 |