Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
5/2 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+56.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +29.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 25% | 22% | 26% | 26% | -5.5 | +4.1 | -1.7 | +3.1 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 22% | 26% | 25% | 28% | -1.5 | +29.7 | -28.9 | +0.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 49% | 10% | 26% | -1.7 | -0.9 | +5.1 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 47% | 12% | 25% | +3.8 | -3.5 | -5.7 | +5.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 1,100 | 19% | 45% | 8% | 28% | -1.8 | +7.9 | -2.1 | -4.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 54% | 6% | 23% | -4.8 | +0.8 | +4.2 | -0.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 57% | 8% | 24% | -9.5 | +29.4 | -7.5 | -12.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 2% | 90% | 3% | 6% | +11.3 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -2.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 89% | 2% | 6% | -14.2 | -8.0 | +35.4 | -13.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 81% | 10% | 7% | -13.4 | +0.2 | -19.3 | +32.5 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 85% | 1% | 13% | -8.7 | +5.9 | +27.8 | -25.0 |