Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2022-23 Semifinals

5/2 Game 2

Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+69.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +22.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 2South 1End● Katsumata Kenji● Suzuki Yu● Sasaki Hisato● Hagiwara Masato0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Katsumata● Suzuki● Sasaki● Hagiwara
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKatsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Suzuki Yu
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Suzuki Yu
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
East 1Draw24%26%26%24%+4.6-1.8-3.2+0.4
East 1, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji tsumo 6,00028%24%24%25%+22.2-6.4-8.5-7.2
East 1, 2 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 7,700 from Suzuki Yu44%18%18%19%+17.2-19.1+0.6+1.3
East 1, 3 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 3,900 from Suzuki Yu59%9%16%16%0.0-8.8+10.0-1.1
East 2Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato60%6%19%15%+1.6-2.7+20.0-18.9
East 3Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato60%3%30%7%+18.7+1.0-21.1+1.5
East 4Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji83%3%9%5%-2.9-0.8+9.5-5.9
South 1Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Suzuki Yu82%2%13%3%+8.1-8.5-1.9+2.3
South 1, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 5,800 from Suzuki Yu89%1%9%2%+6.9-8.3-0.3+1.7
South 1, 2 honbaSuzuki Yu ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji92%0%6%1%-12.4+12.4+2.6-2.6
South 2Draw86%1%11%2%+2.7-3.40.0+0.8
South 3, 1 honbaDraw91%0%7%2%+2.0+3.0-3.9-1.0
South 4, 2 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Suzuki Yu97%0%1%2%+1.1-8.1+5.6+1.3

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)