Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
5/2 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+69.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +25.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +1.9 | -1.7 | -1.5 | +1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 23% | 23% | 26% | +25.0 | -7.7 | -9.5 | -7.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Yu Suzuki | 46% | 17% | 16% | 21% | +16.8 | -16.6 | +2.0 | -2.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Yu Suzuki | 62% | 9% | 15% | 15% | 0.0 | -10.1 | +8.9 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 61% | 6% | 18% | 15% | +1.1 | -3.2 | +19.7 | -17.6 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 61% | 3% | 28% | 8% | +18.3 | +1.5 | -19.5 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 83% | 2% | 10% | 5% | -2.8 | -0.7 | +8.2 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Yu Suzuki | 83% | 2% | 12% | 3% | +5.9 | -7.3 | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,800 from Yu Suzuki | 87% | 1% | 9% | 3% | +8.4 | -9.7 | -0.5 | +1.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 92% | 0% | 7% | 1% | -10.9 | +12.5 | +0.3 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 88% | 1% | 8% | 2% | +2.0 | -3.3 | +2.4 | -1.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 0% | 7% | 1% | +1.7 | +3.4 | -4.3 | -0.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Yu Suzuki | 97% | 0% | 1% | 2% | +0.9 | -8.4 | +5.5 | +2.0 |