Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
5/4 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+35.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +40.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -2.0 | +1.3 | -21.0 | +21.7 |
| East 2 | Okada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 21% | 22% | 14% | 43% | +1.9 | -13.2 | +9.3 | +2.1 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 5,200 | 24% | 16% | 16% | 44% | -3.2 | +18.0 | -14.7 | -0.2 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Nikaido Aki | 21% | 25% | 8% | 45% | -2.1 | +14.4 | +0.7 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 16,000 | 19% | 39% | 10% | 32% | -26.3 | -14.0 | +52.1 | -11.9 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 6% | 25% | 47% | 22% | -0.5 | +40.7 | -39.5 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,600 from Okada Sayaka | 3% | 71% | 11% | 15% | +9.1 | +1.7 | -13.1 | +2.3 |
| South 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 4% | 76% | 6% | 14% | -8.2 | -2.9 | +20.2 | -9.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 1,500 from Nikaido Aki | 3% | 73% | 11% | 12% | -2.4 | -0.9 | +9.5 | -6.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 3% | 72% | 16% | 9% | -19.4 | +3.7 | -10.8 | +26.5 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 78% | 4% | 18% | -3.5 | -12.1 | +43.4 | -27.8 |