Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
5/4 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+35.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 23% | 26% | 26% | 24% | -2.2 | +0.3 | -24.7 | +26.6 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 20% | 23% | 12% | 45% | +2.2 | -13.1 | +9.4 | +1.4 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 5,200 | 23% | 16% | 15% | 47% | -5.0 | +17.5 | -10.1 | -2.4 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 20% | 25% | 11% | 45% | +0.1 | +14.6 | -1.9 | -12.8 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 16,000 | 20% | 38% | 10% | 32% | -27.9 | -13.3 | +53.1 | -11.9 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 5% | 25% | 48% | 22% | +0.9 | +39.0 | -41.6 | +1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 3% | 70% | 10% | 18% | +9.7 | +3.1 | -11.8 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 3% | 77% | 6% | 13% | -8.2 | -4.8 | +20.3 | -7.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,500 from Aki Nikaido | 3% | 72% | 13% | 13% | -3.1 | +0.1 | +9.5 | -6.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 2% | 71% | 15% | 11% | -18.7 | +4.0 | -11.6 | +26.3 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 78% | 3% | 18% | -3.7 | -12.2 | +43.8 | -28.0 |