Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series

5/4 Game 2

Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+70.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 6 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 24,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +59.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Yoshihiro Matsumoto● Kotaro Uchikawa● Rumi Nikaido● Mari Takamiya0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Yoshihiro● Kotaro● Rumi● Mari
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKotaro Uchikawa
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Rumi Nikaido
1st-place chance
Mari Takamiya
1st-place chance
Kotaro Uchikawa
Expected pt change
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
Rumi Nikaido
Expected pt change
Mari Takamiya
Expected pt change
East 1Kotaro Uchikawa ron 9,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto24%25%25%27%+24.5-23.3-0.5-0.7
East 1, 1 honbaExhaustive draw43%11%22%25%+6.3-0.7-2.8-2.8
East 1, 2 honbaMari Takamiya tsumo 2,70048%11%19%22%-6.3-4.3-1.2+11.8
East 2Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 1,50042%9%20%29%+6.8-2.8-3.3-0.6
East 3Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto49%7%17%28%+1.1-1.6-1.3+1.8
East 4Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,00050%6%15%29%-7.5-5.2-7.0+19.6
East 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw39%5%11%46%-2.3+1.9-3.1+3.5
East 4, 2 honbaMari Takamiya tsumo 18,00036%5%9%50%-19.4-10.5-10.6+40.5
East 4, 3 honbaExhaustive draw7%1%2%91%-0.1-0.8+0.4+0.5
South 1, 4 honbaExhaustive draw5%1%1%93%+4.1+2.3-3.4-3.0
South 1, 5 honbaExhaustive draw8%1%1%89%-6.1+1.2-1.0+5.9
South 2, 6 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 24,0001%1%1%97%-24.5+59.6-21.2-13.9
South 2, 7 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa1%13%1%86%-24.0+31.0+5.7-12.7
South 2, 8 honbaRumi Nikaido tsumo 8,0000%44%1%56%-10.1-10.3+18.9+1.5
South 3Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,2000%33%1%66%-1.9-10.3-3.8+15.9
South 4Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,0000%8%0%92%-4.2+46.0+0.8-42.6

All 2022-23 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)