Game · 2022-23 Semifinal Series
5/4 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+70.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 6 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 24,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +59.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 9,600 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 24% | 25% | 25% | 27% | +24.5 | -23.3 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 11% | 22% | 25% | +6.3 | -0.7 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,700 | 48% | 11% | 19% | 22% | -6.3 | -4.3 | -1.2 | +11.8 |
| East 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 1,500 | 42% | 9% | 20% | 29% | +6.8 | -2.8 | -3.3 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 49% | 7% | 17% | 28% | +1.1 | -1.6 | -1.3 | +1.8 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 50% | 6% | 15% | 29% | -7.5 | -5.2 | -7.0 | +19.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 5% | 11% | 46% | -2.3 | +1.9 | -3.1 | +3.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 36% | 5% | 9% | 50% | -19.4 | -10.5 | -10.6 | +40.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 1% | 2% | 91% | -0.1 | -0.8 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 1% | 1% | 93% | +4.1 | +2.3 | -3.4 | -3.0 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 1% | 1% | 89% | -6.1 | +1.2 | -1.0 | +5.9 |
| South 2, 6 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 24,000 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 97% | -24.5 | +59.6 | -21.2 | -13.9 |
| South 2, 7 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 1% | 13% | 1% | 86% | -24.0 | +31.0 | +5.7 | -12.7 |
| South 2, 8 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 44% | 1% | 56% | -10.1 | -10.3 | +18.9 | +1.5 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 33% | 1% | 66% | -1.9 | -10.3 | -3.8 | +15.9 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 92% | -4.2 | +46.0 | +0.8 | -42.6 |