Game · 2022-23 Semifinals
5/4 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+70.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 6 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 24,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +61.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 9,600 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +24.6 | -23.1 | -3.4 | +2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 42% | 12% | 21% | 24% | +5.6 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,700 | 47% | 11% | 20% | 22% | -5.2 | -4.8 | +0.3 | +9.6 |
| East 2 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 1,500 | 44% | 9% | 20% | 27% | +5.4 | -3.5 | -2.7 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 49% | 7% | 17% | 27% | +2.9 | -4.4 | -1.2 | +2.8 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 52% | 5% | 15% | 28% | -8.8 | -4.3 | -6.7 | +19.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 39% | 4% | 11% | 46% | -1.0 | +2.3 | -5.5 | +4.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,000 | 38% | 4% | 7% | 51% | -20.9 | -9.7 | -9.4 | +39.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 6% | 1% | 2% | 91% | +0.6 | -0.9 | -0.4 | +0.7 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Draw | 5% | 1% | 1% | 93% | +1.7 | +2.3 | -1.1 | -3.0 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Draw | 7% | 1% | 2% | 91% | -4.2 | +1.6 | -2.1 | +4.7 |
| South 2, 6 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 24,000 | 2% | 1% | 1% | 97% | -24.1 | +61.0 | -22.5 | -14.4 |
| South 2, 7 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 1% | 15% | 1% | 83% | -24.1 | +29.7 | +5.7 | -11.2 |
| South 2, 8 honba | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 44% | 0% | 56% | -10.2 | -10.4 | +19.7 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 34% | 2% | 64% | -2.4 | -10.7 | -3.9 | +16.9 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 92% | -4.1 | +46.3 | +0.9 | -43.1 |