Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/8 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+66.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +56.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 22% | 25% | 26% | +1.8 | +7.6 | -4.6 | -4.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 3,200 | 27% | 28% | 22% | 23% | -8.1 | -3.7 | +14.7 | -2.9 |
| East 2 | Takaki Asai ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 20% | 26% | 32% | 22% | -0.4 | +13.4 | -1.2 | -11.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 34% | 31% | 16% | +17.4 | -9.6 | -3.9 | -3.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 27% | 29% | 13% | +3.5 | -3.0 | +1.2 | -1.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 35% | 24% | 29% | 12% | -5.8 | -5.9 | -17.9 | +29.6 |
| East 4 | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 23% | 16% | 31% | -8.8 | +31.6 | -4.9 | -18.0 |
| South 1 | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 49% | 14% | 15% | -12.5 | +23.6 | -6.4 | -4.6 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 7% | 78% | 7% | 8% | -2.1 | -21.6 | -5.3 | +29.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 52% | 9% | 29% | +5.3 | +6.9 | -10.0 | -2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 11% | 66% | 2% | 21% | -13.0 | -34.5 | -9.1 | +56.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takaki Asai ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -3.0 | +6.8 | -2.7 | -1.1 |