Game · 2024-25 Finals
5/8 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+66.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +56.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +2.8 | +4.3 | -3.2 | -4.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 3,200 | 26% | 28% | 22% | 24% | -7.6 | -2.2 | +12.1 | -2.2 |
| East 2 | Asai Takaki ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 20% | 26% | 32% | 22% | +0.3 | +11.8 | -0.2 | -11.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 5,200 | 20% | 33% | 31% | 16% | +15.2 | -7.2 | -3.3 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 30% | 29% | 28% | 14% | +3.3 | -4.2 | +3.4 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 32% | 25% | 30% | 13% | -5.1 | -5.0 | -19.1 | +29.1 |
| East 4 | Asai Takaki tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 23% | 17% | 29% | -5.8 | +28.2 | -5.1 | -17.3 |
| South 1 | Asai Takaki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 46% | 14% | 16% | -14.7 | +25.5 | -4.5 | -6.3 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki | 7% | 77% | 8% | 8% | -1.1 | -21.6 | -8.0 | +30.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 11% | 51% | 9% | 30% | +5.9 | +6.4 | -9.9 | -2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 18,000 | 12% | 65% | 2% | 21% | -14.7 | -33.6 | -8.2 | +56.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Asai Takaki ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -2.4 | +6.8 | -3.7 | -0.8 |