Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/9 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+79.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +24.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 26% | 23% | 26% | 24% | -4.9 | +24.6 | -20.1 | +0.3 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 42% | 14% | 24% | -3.8 | +13.0 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Genta Takeuchi | 16% | 54% | 10% | 20% | +1.5 | +0.4 | +9.4 | -11.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 56% | 15% | 14% | -2.9 | +0.1 | -5.5 | +8.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Maki Asami | 14% | 56% | 12% | 18% | -19.9 | +21.9 | +1.3 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Maki Asami ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 5% | 81% | 6% | 9% | +28.6 | -1.6 | -27.1 | 0.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 78% | 2% | 8% | -5.2 | +7.1 | +1.2 | -3.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 7,700 from Go Kobayashi | 4% | 90% | 2% | 5% | +0.3 | +12.6 | -14.3 | +1.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 96% | 0% | 3% | -1.9 | +5.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Maki Asami ron 2,000 from Go Kobayashi | 0% | 97% | 0% | 2% | +6.9 | +0.1 | -5.0 | -2.0 |
| South 3 | Maki Asami ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | +3.9 | -0.3 | -2.2 | -1.4 |
| South 4 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +1.4 | -1.3 | +8.8 | -8.8 |